PUBLICATION DATE

2009-03-17

AUTHORS

Vinh Q. T. Dang, Kenneth S. Chan

TITLE

Multilateral trade and export-led growth in the world economy: some post-war evidence

ISSUE

3

VOLUME

38

ISSN (print)

0377-7332

ISSN (electronic)

1435-8921

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we address an empirical question: is there evidence to substantiate the assumption that the post-war liberalization of world trade has actually led to a significant increase in the world GDP? In our attempt to answer that question, time series data in the Penn World Table 6.1 are aggregated across countries to obtain a measure of world trade and output, and the total number of GATT/WTO member countries is employed as an explanatory variable to account for the impact of multilateral trade agreements, such as the Kennedy Round, Tokyo Round, and the Uruguay Round, on the trade-growth nexus. We then examine the relationship between world trade and the post-war GDP per worker across the world through the multivariate cointegration and error correction modeling and the Granger causality test. The results suggest that, at the global level, the post-war liberalization of multilateral trade has promoted both GDP and trade activities. There is also evidence that supports the export-led growth hypothesis in the world economy.

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1 articles:03566ff50a3d20d41cd6455c5ac80f22 sg:abstract Abstract In this paper, we address an empirical question: is there evidence to substantiate the assumption that the post-war liberalization of world trade has actually led to a significant increase in the world GDP? In our attempt to answer that question, time series data in the Penn World Table 6.1 are aggregated across countries to obtain a measure of world trade and output, and the total number of GATT/WTO member countries is employed as an explanatory variable to account for the impact of multilateral trade agreements, such as the Kennedy Round, Tokyo Round, and the Uruguay Round, on the trade-growth nexus. We then examine the relationship between world trade and the post-war GDP per worker across the world through the multivariate cointegration and error correction modeling and the Granger causality test. The results suggest that, at the global level, the post-war liberalization of multilateral trade has promoted both GDP and trade activities. There is also evidence that supports the export-led growth hypothesis in the world economy.
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7 sg:doi 10.1007/s00181-009-0285-7
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25 sg:language English
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27 sg:pageEnd 703
28 sg:pageStart 689
29 sg:publicationDate 2009-03-17
30 sg:publicationYear 2009
31 sg:publicationYearMonth 2009-03
32 sg:scigraphId 03566ff50a3d20d41cd6455c5ac80f22
33 sg:title Multilateral trade and export-led growth in the world economy: some post-war evidence
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35 sg:webpage https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-009-0285-7
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37 rdfs:label Article: Multilateral trade and export-led growth in the world economy: some post-war evidence
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