A case study of 2019-nCOV cases in Argentina with the real data based on daily cases from March 03, 2020 ... View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2021-07-20

AUTHORS

Pushpendra Kumar, Vedat Suat Erturk, Marina Murillo-Arcila, Ramashis Banerjee, A. Manickam

ABSTRACT

In this study, our aim is to explore the dynamics of COVID-19 or 2019-nCOV in Argentina considering the parameter values based on the real data of this virus from March 03, 2020 to March 29, 2021 which is a data range of more than one complete year. We propose a Atangana–Baleanu type fractional-order model and simulate it by using predictor–corrector (P-C) method. First we introduce the biological nature of this virus in theoretical way and then formulate a mathematical model to define its dynamics. We use a well-known effective optimization scheme based on the renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) method to perform the model calibration. We have plotted the real cases of COVID-19 and compared our integer-order model with the simulated data along with the calculation of basic reproductive number. Concerning fractional-order simulations, first we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution and then write the solution along with the stability of the given P-C method. A number of graphs at various fractional-order values are simulated to predict the future dynamics of the virus in Argentina which is the main contribution of this paper. More... »

PAGES

341

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1186/s13662-021-03499-2

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03499-2

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1139793369

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34306044


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