The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2019-03

AUTHORS

Stefan Avdjiev, Valentina Bruno, Catherine Koch, Hyun Song Shin

ABSTRACT

Exchange rate fluctuations could influence economic activity not only via the standard trade channel, but also through a financial channel, which operates through the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on borrowers’ balance sheets and lenders’ risk-taking capacity. This paper explores the “triangular” relationship between (1) the strength of the US dollar, (2) cross-border bank flows and (3) real investment. We conduct two sets of empirical exercises—a macro (country-level) study and a micro (firm-level) study. We find that a stronger dollar is associated with lower growth in dollar-denominated cross-border bank flows and lower real investment in emerging market economies. An important policy implication of our findings is that a stronger US dollar has real macroeconomic effects that go in the opposite direction to the standard trade channel. More... »

PAGES

151-173

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2010. An Evaluation of the Contractionary Devaluation Hypothesis in ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN LATIN AMERICA
  • 2011-04. Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis in IMF ECONOMIC REVIEW
  • 1999-11. Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises in INTERNATIONAL TAX AND PUBLIC FINANCE
  • Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1057/s41308-019-00074-4

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41308-019-00074-4

    DIMENSIONS

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