The Likelihood of Recent Record Warmth View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2016-04

AUTHORS

Michael E. Mann, Stefan Rahmstorf, Byron A. Steinman, Martin Tingley, Sonya K. Miller

ABSTRACT

2014 was nominally the warmest year on record for both the globe and northern hemisphere based on historical records spanning the past one and a half centuries. It was the latest in a recent run of record temperatures spanning the past decade and a half. Press accounts reported odds as low as one-in-650 million that the observed run of global temperature records would be expected to occur in the absence of human-caused global warming. Press reports notwithstanding, the question of how likely observed temperature records may have have been both with and without human influence is interesting in its own right. Here we attempt to address that question using a semi-empirical approach that combines the latest (CMIP5) climate model simulations with observations of global and hemispheric mean temperature. We find that individual record years and the observed runs of record-setting temperatures were extremely unlikely to have occurred in the absence of human-caused climate change, though not nearly as unlikely as press reports have suggested. These same record temperatures were, by contrast, quite likely to have occurred in the presence of anthropogenic climate forcing. More... »

PAGES

19831

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/srep19831

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep19831

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1049721249

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26806092


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