Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2019-03-12

AUTHORS

Olli Karjalainen, Juha Aalto, Miska Luoto, Sebastian Westermann, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Frederick E. Nelson, Bernd Etzelmüller, Jan Hjort

ABSTRACT

Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses. More... »

PAGES

190037

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/sdata.2019.37

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.37

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112684202

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30860499


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