Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2021-11-04

AUTHORS

G. Di Capua, S. Sparrow, K. Kornhuber, E. Rousi, S. Osprey, D. Wallom, B. van den Hurk, D. Coumou

ABSTRACT

Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies. More... »

PAGES

55

References to SciGraph publications

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    60 moisture deficit
    61 occurrence
    62 previous studies
    63 probability
    64 rainfall
    65 rainfall extremes
    66 record-breaking heatwave
    67 relatives
    68 response
    69 results
    70 sea surface temperature anomalies
    71 severe floods
    72 simultaneous extremes
    73 soil moisture deficit
    74 study
    75 summer 2010
    76 surface temperature anomalies
    77 synergistic interaction
    78 temperature anomalies
    79 train
    80 wave events
    81 wave response
    82 wave train
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