Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2018-01-09

AUTHORS

B. H. Samset, G. Myhre, P. M. Forster, Ø. Hodnebrog, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, D. Fläschner, M. Kasoar, V. Kharin, A. Kirkevåg, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Olivié, T. B. Richardson, D. Shindell, T. Takemura, A. Voulgarakis

ABSTRACT

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2–3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3–5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0–2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator. More... »

PAGES

20173

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1099785546


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18 schema:description We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2–3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3–5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0–2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.
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26 CH4
27 CO2
28 HS variability
29 Kelvin
30 Ocean
31 Sea response
32 adjustment
33 adjustment process
34 behavior
35 black carbon
36 black carbon concentrations
37 carbon
38 carbon concentration
39 changes
40 climate
41 climate models
42 cloud processes
43 concentration
44 constraints
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46 convective precipitation
47 differences
48 drivers
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50 equator
51 global mean precipitation increase
52 global mean surface warming
53 high latitudes
54 hydrological sensitivity
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57 investigation
58 irradiance
59 land
60 land regions
61 large inter-model differences
62 large-scale precipitation
63 latitudes
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69 particular needs
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74 process
75 rapid adjustment
76 region
77 response
78 results
79 sensitivity
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81 solar irradiance
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83 sulfate
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