ENSO relationship to summer rainfall variability and its potential predictability over Arabian Peninsula region View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2018-12

AUTHORS

Muhammad Adnan Abid, Mansour Almazroui, Fred Kucharski, Enda O’Brien, Ahmed Elsayed Yousef

ABSTRACT

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is considered to be responsible for rainfall predictability in many regions. Some of its regional teleconnections, such as over the Arabian Peninsula in boreal summer (June–August) season, are not well studied. Therefore, in this paper, the relationship between the summer seasonal mean rainfall and ENSO is analyzed with the aid of a 15-member ensemble of simulations using the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University (KAU) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) for the period 1981–2015. The southwestern peninsula rainfall is linked to the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the central-eastern pacific region. This relationship is established through an atmospheric teleconnection which shows upper-level convergence anomalies over the southern Arabian Peninsula compensating the central-eastern Pacific upper-level divergence anomalies for the warm ENSO phase, and vice-versa for the cold Phase. The upper-level convergence over the southern Arabian Peninsula leads to sinking motion, low-level divergence and consequently to reduced rainfall in the warm phase, while reverse happens in the cold phase. The correlation coefficient between the observed area-averged Niño3.4 index and a Southwestern Arabian Peninsula Rainfall Index (SARI) is −0.43 (statistically significant at 95%). Overall, model shows a potential predictability (PP) of 0.53 for the SARI region. Predictability during El Niño is higher than during La Niña events. This is not only because of a stronger signal, but also noise reduction contributes to the increase of PP in El Niño compared to that of La Niña years. Drought conditions are particularly alarming for a water-scarce region like the Arabian Peninsula. Therefore, the prediction of regional rainfall is of utmost importance for the socio-economic sectors such as water and agricultural resources, so the policy makers can cope with drought situations. In the summer season, the Arabian Peninsula receives rainfall mostly in the southwestern region. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences the southwestern peninsula rainfall and drives drought conditions in its warm phase. In this study it is shown that models are able to realize this potential, and Arabian Peninsula summer rainfall may be therefore predictable on a seasonal basis. More... »

PAGES

20171

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http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/s41612-017-0003-7

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0003-7

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https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1099757043


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