Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2020-09-23

AUTHORS

Susan C. Cook-Patton, Sara M. Leavitt, David Gibbs, Nancy L. Harris, Kristine Lister, Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Russell D. Briggs, Robin L. Chazdon, Thomas W. Crowther, Peter W. Ellis, Heather P. Griscom, Valentine Herrmann, Karen D. Holl, Richard A. Houghton, Cecilia Larrosa, Guy Lomax, Richard Lucas, Palle Madsen, Yadvinder Malhi, Alain Paquette, John D. Parker, Keryn Paul, Devin Routh, Stephen Roxburgh, Sassan Saatchi, Johan van den Hoogen, Wayne S. Walker, Charlotte E. Wheeler, Stephen A. Wood, Liang Xu, Bronson W. Griscom

ABSTRACT

To constrain global warming, we must strongly curtail greenhouse gas emissions and capture excess atmospheric carbon dioxide1,2. Regrowing natural forests is a prominent strategy for capturing additional carbon3, but accurate assessments of its potential are limited by uncertainty and variability in carbon accumulation rates2,3. To assess why and where rates differ, here we compile 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation. Climatic factors explain variation in rates better than land-use history, so we combine the field measurements with 66 environmental covariate layers to create a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates for the first 30 years of natural forest regrowth. This map shows over 100-fold variation in rates across the globe, and indicates that default rates from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)4,5 may underestimate aboveground carbon accumulation rates by 32 per cent on average and do not capture eight-fold variation within ecozones. Conversely, we conclude that maximum climate mitigation potential from natural forest regrowth is 11 per cent lower than previously reported3 owing to the use of overly high rates for the location of potential new forest. Although our data compilation includes more studies and sites than previous efforts, our results depend on data availability, which is concentrated in ten countries, and data quality, which varies across studies. However, the plots cover most of the environmental conditions across the areas for which we predicted carbon accumulation rates (except for northern Africa and northeast Asia). We therefore provide a robust and globally consistent tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy. More... »

PAGES

545-550

Journal

TITLE

Nature

ISSUE

7826

VOLUME

585

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2686-x

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1131096657

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32968258


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