Present-day greenhouse gases could cause more frequent and longer Dust Bowl heatwaves View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2020-05-18

AUTHORS

Tim Cowan, Sabine Undorf, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Luke J. Harrington, Friederike E. L. Otto

ABSTRACT

Substantial warming occurred across North America, Europe and the Arctic over the early twentieth century1, including an increase in global drought2, that was partially forced by rising greenhouse gases (GHGs)3. The period included the 1930s Dust Bowl drought4–7 across North America’s Great Plains that caused widespread crop failures4,8, large dust storms9 and considerable out-migration10. This coincided with the central United States experiencing its hottest summers of the twentieth century11,12 in 1934 and 1936, with over 40 heatwave days and maximum temperatures surpassing 44 °C at some locations13,14. Here we use a large-ensemble regional modelling framework to show that GHG increases caused slightly enhanced heatwave activity over the eastern United States during 1934 and 1936. Instead of asking how a present-day heatwave would behave in a world without climate warming, we ask how these 1930s heatwaves would behave with present-day GHGs. Heatwave activity in similarly rare events would be much larger under today’s atmospheric GHG forcing and the return period of a 1-in-100-year heatwave summer (as observed in 1936) would be reduced to about 1-in-40 years. A key driver of the increasing heatwave activity and intensity is reduced evaporative cooling and increased sensible heating during dry springs and summers. More... »

PAGES

505-510

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0771-7

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1127689928


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192 grid-institutes:grid.4305.2 schema:alternateName School of GeoSciences, The Kings Building, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
193 schema:name Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
194 Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
195 School of GeoSciences, The Kings Building, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
196 rdf:type schema:Organization
197 grid-institutes:grid.4991.5 schema:alternateName Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
198 schema:name Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
199 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




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