Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2021-01-18

AUTHORS

Nathan P. Gillett, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Guillaume Gastineau, Jasmin G. John, Lijuan Li, Larissa Nazarenko, Nan Rosenbloom, Øyvind Seland, Tongwen Wu, Seiji Yukimoto, Tilo Ziehn

ABSTRACT

Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. More... »

PAGES

207-212

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1134662872


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