Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2012-03

AUTHORS

Michael E. Mann, Jose D. Fuentes, Scott Rutherford

ABSTRACT

The largest eruption of a tropical volcano during the past millennium occurred in AD 1258–1259. Its estimated radiative forcing was several times larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption1. Radiative forcing of that magnitude is expected to result in a climate cooling of about 2 °C (refs 2, 3, 4, 5). This effect, however, is largely absent from tree-ring reconstructions of temperature6,7,8, and is muted in reconstructions that employ a mix of tree-rings and other proxy data9,10. This discrepancy has called into question the climate impact of the eruption2,5,11. Here we use a tree-growth model driven by simulated temperature variations to show that the discrepancy between expected and reconstructed temperatures is probably an artefact caused by a reduced sensitivity to cooling in trees that grow near the treeline. This effect is compounded by the secondary effects of chronological errors due to missing growth rings and volcanically induced alterations of diffuse light. We support this conclusion with an assessment of synthetic proxy records created using the simulated temperature variations. Our findings suggest that the evidence from tree rings is consistent with a substantial climate impact2,3,4,5 of volcanic eruptions in past centuries that is greater than that estimated by tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions. More... »

PAGES

202

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/ngeo1394

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1394

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1029857011


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