Extending medium-range predictability of extreme hydrological events in Europe View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2014-12

AUTHORS

David A. Lavers, Florian Pappenberger, Ervin Zsoter

ABSTRACT

Widespread flooding occurred across northwest Europe during the winter of 2013/14, resulting in large socioeconomic damages. In the historical record, extreme hydrological events have been connected with intense water vapour transport. Here we show that water vapour transport has higher medium-range predictability compared with precipitation in the winter 2013/14 forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Applying the concept of potential predictability, the transport is found to extend the forecast horizon by 3 days in some European regions. Our results suggest that the breakdown in precipitation predictability is due to uncertainty in the horizontal mass convergence location, an essential mechanism for precipitation generation. Furthermore, the predictability increases with larger spatial averages. Given the strong association between precipitation and water vapour transport, especially for extreme events, we conclude that the higher transport predictability could be used as a model diagnostic to increase preparedness for extreme hydrological events. More... »

PAGES

5382

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/ncomms6382

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms6382

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030492768

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25387309


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151 School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
152 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




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