Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2016-12-06

AUTHORS

Peter Good, Ben B. B. Booth, Robin Chadwick, Ed Hawkins, Alexandra Jonko, Jason A. Lowe

ABSTRACT

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally. More... »

PAGES

13667

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/ncomms13667

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms13667

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007929911

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27922014


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