Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2017-11

AUTHORS

Ingo Bethke, Stephen Outten, Odd Helge Otterå, Ed Hawkins, Sebastian Wagner, Michael Sigl, Peter Thorne

ABSTRACT

Volcanic activity plays a strong role in modulating climate variability1. Most model projections of the twenty-first century, however, under-sample future volcanic effects by not representing the range of plausible eruption scenarios2,3,4. Here, we explore how sixty possible volcanic futures, consistent with ice-core records5, impact climate variability projections of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM)6 under RCP4.5 (ref. 7). The inclusion of volcanic forcing enhances climate variability on annual-to-decadal timescales. Although decades with negative global temperature trends become ∼50% more commonplace with volcanic activity, these are unlikely to be able to mitigate long-term anthropogenic warming. Volcanic activity also impacts probabilistic projections of global radiation, sea level, ocean circulation, and sea-ice variability, the local-scale effects of which are detectable when quantifying the time of emergence8. These results highlight the importance and feasibility of representing volcanic uncertainty in future climate assessments. More... »

PAGES

799-805

References to SciGraph publications

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  • 2015-04. Tying down eruption risk in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2016-07. Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions in SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
  • 2015-12. Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions in NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
  • 2015-07. Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years in NATURE
  • 2016-08. Realizing the impacts of a 1.5 °C warmer world in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2014-08. Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the Common Era in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2006-02. Volcanoes and climate: Krakatoa's signature persists in the ocean in NATURE
  • 2010-10. External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2015-11. Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2005-11. Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content in NATURE
  • 2010. Possible Influence of Volcanic Activity on the Decadal Potential Predictability of the Natural Variability in Near-Term Climate Predictions in ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY
  • 2011-11. The representative concentration pathways: an overview in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2014-02. Small influence of solar variability on climate over the past millennium in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
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    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate3394

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3394

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    JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate3394'

    N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate3394'

    Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

    curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate3394'

    RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate3394'


     

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