Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2017-06

AUTHORS

Andrew D. King, David J. Karoly, Benjamin J. Henley

ABSTRACT

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events1,2,3. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012–2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming. More... »

PAGES

412-416

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate3296

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3296

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1085412930


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