Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2016-02-01

AUTHORS

Nathalie Schaller, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb, Neil R. Massey, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Ian Ashpole, Andy Bowery, Susan M. Crooks, Karsten Haustein, Chris Huntingford, William J. Ingram, Richard G. Jones, Tim Legg, Jonathan Miller, Jessica Skeggs, David Wallom, Antje Weisheimer, Simon Wilson, Peter A. Stott, Myles R. Allen

ABSTRACT

A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate. More... »

PAGES

627-634

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2927

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2927

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1011320779


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362 grid-institutes:grid.457340.1 schema:alternateName Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement & IPSL, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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375 grid-institutes:grid.9835.7 schema:alternateName Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK
376 schema:name JBA Trust, South Barn, Broughton Hall, Skipton BD23 3AE, UK
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