Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2016-02-08

AUTHORS

Peter U. Clark, Jeremy D. Shakun, Shaun A. Marcott, Alan C. Mix, Michael Eby, Scott Kulp, Anders Levermann, Glenn A. Milne, Patrik L. Pfister, Benjamin D. Santer, Daniel P. Schrag, Susan Solomon, Thomas F. Stocker, Benjamin H. Strauss, Andrew J. Weaver, Ricarda Winkelmann, David Archer, Edouard Bard, Aaron Goldner, Kurt Lambeck, Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, Gian-Kasper Plattner

ABSTRACT

Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond. More... »

PAGES

360-369

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  • Journal

    TITLE

    Nature Climate Change

    ISSUE

    4

    VOLUME

    6

    Author Affiliations

  • College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 97331, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
  • Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, 02467, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA
  • Department of Geoscience, University of Wisconsin, 53706, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
  • Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, V5A 1S6, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
  • Climate Central, 08542, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
  • Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, 14476, Potsdam, Germany
  • Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Ottawa, K1N 6N5, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
  • Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
  • Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 94550, Livermore, California, USA
  • Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 02138, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
  • Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 02139, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
  • Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, Zahringerstrasse 25, CH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
  • School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, V8W 3P6, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
  • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412, Potsdam, Germany
  • Department of Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, 60637, Chicago, Illinois, USA
  • CEREGE, Aix-Marseille University – CNRS– IRD – College de France, Technopole de l'Arbois, BP 80, 13545, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 4, France
  • AAAS Science and Technology Fellow, 20001, Washington DC, USA
  • Laboratoire de Géologie de l'École Normale Supérieure, UMR 8538 du CNRS, 75231, Paris, France
  • Department of Physics, Oxford University, OX1 3PU, Oxford, UK
  • Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2923

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2923

    DIMENSIONS

    https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1040694708


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