Attribution of climate extreme events View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2015-06-22

AUTHORS

Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo, Theodore G. Shepherd

ABSTRACT

There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component. More... »

PAGES

725-730

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2657

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021001021


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/04", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Earth Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/0401", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Atmospheric Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, 80307, Boulder, Colorado, USA", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.57828.30", 
          "name": [
            "National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, 80307, Boulder, Colorado, USA"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Trenberth", 
        "givenName": "Kevin E.", 
        "id": "sg:person.01172554715.26", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01172554715.26"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, 80307, Boulder, Colorado, USA", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.57828.30", 
          "name": [
            "National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, 80307, Boulder, Colorado, USA"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Fasullo", 
        "givenName": "John T.", 
        "id": "sg:person.015653350613.57", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015653350613.57"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK", 
          "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.9435.b", 
          "name": [
            "Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Shepherd", 
        "givenName": "Theodore G.", 
        "id": "sg:person.01143236440.49", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01143236440.49"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "citation": [
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2067", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027365474", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_12", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1000273338", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_12"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021861148", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1012405556", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2341", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020162604", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2341"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/ngeo2253", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1037617723", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1023/a:1005319109110", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027068882", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1005319109110"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035121190", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "2015-06-22", 
    "datePublishedReg": "2015-06-22", 
    "description": "There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.", 
    "genre": "article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2657", 
    "inLanguage": "en", 
    "isAccessibleForFree": true, 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1044959", 
        "issn": [
          "1758-678X", 
          "1758-6798"
        ], 
        "name": "Nature Climate Change", 
        "publisher": "Springer Nature", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "8", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "5"
      }
    ], 
    "keywords": [
      "climate change", 
      "high sea surface temperatures", 
      "human-induced climate change", 
      "sea surface temperature", 
      "climate extreme events", 
      "circulation regimes", 
      "Supertyphoon Haiyan", 
      "natural variability", 
      "extreme events", 
      "surface temperature", 
      "such extremes", 
      "weather events", 
      "attribution framework", 
      "Superstorm Sandy", 
      "thermodynamic state", 
      "extremes", 
      "events", 
      "physical standpoint", 
      "particular event", 
      "floods", 
      "Sandy", 
      "Haiyan", 
      "variability", 
      "changes", 
      "human component", 
      "small signal", 
      "regime", 
      "more detail", 
      "temperature", 
      "attribution", 
      "impact", 
      "ratio", 
      "uncertain nature", 
      "components", 
      "nature", 
      "noise ratio", 
      "detail", 
      "example", 
      "signals", 
      "play", 
      "cause", 
      "framework", 
      "state", 
      "different framings", 
      "standpoint", 
      "way", 
      "headlines", 
      "framing", 
      "desire"
    ], 
    "name": "Attribution of climate extreme events", 
    "pagination": "725-730", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1021001021"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1038/nclimate2657"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021001021"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2022-06-01T22:16", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-springernature-scigraph/baseset/20220601/entities/gbq_results/article/article_672.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2657'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2657'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2657'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2657'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

156 TRIPLES      22 PREDICATES      82 URIs      66 LITERALS      6 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2657 schema:about anzsrc-for:04
2 anzsrc-for:0401
3 schema:author Ne811215b69914bb48d7c409478cab64c
4 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_12
5 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4
6 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
7 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5
8 sg:pub.10.1023/a:1005319109110
9 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2067
10 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2341
11 sg:pub.10.1038/ngeo2253
12 schema:datePublished 2015-06-22
13 schema:datePublishedReg 2015-06-22
14 schema:description There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.
15 schema:genre article
16 schema:inLanguage en
17 schema:isAccessibleForFree true
18 schema:isPartOf N8233849548854c469016905dbb9f1c74
19 Ne27fd9730e2d4e73a981fa9f36ead946
20 sg:journal.1044959
21 schema:keywords Haiyan
22 Sandy
23 Superstorm Sandy
24 Supertyphoon Haiyan
25 attribution
26 attribution framework
27 cause
28 changes
29 circulation regimes
30 climate change
31 climate extreme events
32 components
33 desire
34 detail
35 different framings
36 events
37 example
38 extreme events
39 extremes
40 floods
41 framework
42 framing
43 headlines
44 high sea surface temperatures
45 human component
46 human-induced climate change
47 impact
48 more detail
49 natural variability
50 nature
51 noise ratio
52 particular event
53 physical standpoint
54 play
55 ratio
56 regime
57 sea surface temperature
58 signals
59 small signal
60 standpoint
61 state
62 such extremes
63 surface temperature
64 temperature
65 thermodynamic state
66 uncertain nature
67 variability
68 way
69 weather events
70 schema:name Attribution of climate extreme events
71 schema:pagination 725-730
72 schema:productId N6b8345dcddca4179b1293c0a8446ca0a
73 Nb1b68f3881b24314b49965ae67d27120
74 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021001021
75 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
76 schema:sdDatePublished 2022-06-01T22:16
77 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
78 schema:sdPublisher N6755ffc99f3240fbbc7aaa40705efcc1
79 schema:url https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
80 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
81 sgo:sdDataset articles
82 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
83 N39d29d9a3ab94519ab9de3d6f685bae6 rdf:first sg:person.01143236440.49
84 rdf:rest rdf:nil
85 N61298db0850e4b7ba24912724fbbdf56 rdf:first sg:person.015653350613.57
86 rdf:rest N39d29d9a3ab94519ab9de3d6f685bae6
87 N6755ffc99f3240fbbc7aaa40705efcc1 schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
88 rdf:type schema:Organization
89 N6b8345dcddca4179b1293c0a8446ca0a schema:name doi
90 schema:value 10.1038/nclimate2657
91 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
92 N8233849548854c469016905dbb9f1c74 schema:volumeNumber 5
93 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
94 Nb1b68f3881b24314b49965ae67d27120 schema:name dimensions_id
95 schema:value pub.1021001021
96 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
97 Ne27fd9730e2d4e73a981fa9f36ead946 schema:issueNumber 8
98 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
99 Ne811215b69914bb48d7c409478cab64c rdf:first sg:person.01172554715.26
100 rdf:rest N61298db0850e4b7ba24912724fbbdf56
101 anzsrc-for:04 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
102 schema:name Earth Sciences
103 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
104 anzsrc-for:0401 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
105 schema:name Atmospheric Sciences
106 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
107 sg:journal.1044959 schema:issn 1758-678X
108 1758-6798
109 schema:name Nature Climate Change
110 schema:publisher Springer Nature
111 rdf:type schema:Periodical
112 sg:person.01143236440.49 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.9435.b
113 schema:familyName Shepherd
114 schema:givenName Theodore G.
115 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01143236440.49
116 rdf:type schema:Person
117 sg:person.01172554715.26 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.57828.30
118 schema:familyName Trenberth
119 schema:givenName Kevin E.
120 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01172554715.26
121 rdf:type schema:Person
122 sg:person.015653350613.57 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.57828.30
123 schema:familyName Fasullo
124 schema:givenName John T.
125 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015653350613.57
126 rdf:type schema:Person
127 sg:pub.10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_12 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1000273338
128 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_12
129 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
130 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1012405556
131 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0017-4
132 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
133 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021861148
134 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x
135 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
136 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035121190
137 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5
138 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
139 sg:pub.10.1023/a:1005319109110 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027068882
140 https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1005319109110
141 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
142 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2067 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027365474
143 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067
144 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
145 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2341 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020162604
146 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2341
147 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
148 sg:pub.10.1038/ngeo2253 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1037617723
149 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253
150 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
151 grid-institutes:grid.57828.30 schema:alternateName National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, 80307, Boulder, Colorado, USA
152 schema:name National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO Box 3000, 80307, Boulder, Colorado, USA
153 rdf:type schema:Organization
154 grid-institutes:grid.9435.b schema:alternateName Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK
155 schema:name Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK
156 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...