Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2014-05

AUTHORS

Raphael Neukom, Joëlle Gergis, David J. Karoly, Heinz Wanner, Mark Curran, Julie Elbert, Fidel González-Rouco, Braddock K. Linsley, Andrew D. Moy, Ignacio Mundo, Christoph C. Raible, Eric J. Steig, Tas van Ommen, Tessa Vance, Ricardo Villalba, Jens Zinke, David Frank

ABSTRACT

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1,2,3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4,5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5,6 alone. More... »

PAGES

362-367

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nclimate2174

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2174

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1041547048


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278 Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston Tasmania 7050, Australia
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280 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1046.3 schema:alternateName Australian Institute of Marine Science
281 schema:name Australian Institute of Marine Science, Nedlands WA 6009, Australia
282 School of Earth and Environment, University of Western Australia Oceans Institute, 35 Stirling Highway Crawley WA 6009, Australia
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284 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.473157.3 schema:alternateName Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
285 schema:name Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades New York 10964, USA
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287 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4795.f schema:alternateName Complutense University of Madrid
288 schema:name Departamento Astrofísica y CC de la Atmósfera, Instituto de Geociencias (CSIC-UCM) Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, 28040, Spain
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290 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.5734.5 schema:alternateName University of Bern
291 schema:name Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
292 Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland
293 Swiss Federal Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111 CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
294 rdf:type schema:Organization
295 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.9499.d schema:alternateName National University of La Plata
296 schema:name Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT CONICET-Mendoza, Mendoza, 5500, Argentina
297 LISEA, Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias y Forestales, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, B1900 La Plata, Argentina
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