Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2014-07-02

AUTHORS

Ed Hawkins, Bruce Anderson, Noah Diffenbaugh, Irina Mahlstein, Richard Betts, Gabi Hegerl, Manoj Joshi, Reto Knutti, Doug McNeall, Susan Solomon, Rowan Sutton, Jozef Syktus, Gabriel Vecchi

ABSTRACT

Arising from C. Mora et al.Nature502, 183–187 (2013)The question of when the signal of climate change will emerge from the background noise of climate variability—the ‘time of emergence’—is potentially important for adaptation planning. Mora et al.1 presented precise projections of the time of emergence of unprecedented regional climates. However, their methodology produces artificially early dates at which specific regions will permanently experience unprecedented climates and artificially low uncertainty in those dates everywhere. This overconfidence could impair the effectiveness of climate risk management decisions2. There is a Reply to this Brief Communication Arising by Mora, C. et al. Nature511,http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13524 (2014). More... »

PAGES

e3-e5

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nature13523

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13523

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025273865

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24990757


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