The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2010-02

AUTHORS

Richard H. Moss, Jae A. Edmonds, Kathy A. Hibbard, Martin R. Manning, Steven K. Rose, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Timothy R. Carter, Seita Emori, Mikiko Kainuma, Tom Kram, Gerald A. Meehl, John F. B. Mitchell, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Keywan Riahi, Steven J. Smith, Ronald J. Stouffer, Allison M. Thomson, John P. Weyant, Thomas J. Wilbanks

ABSTRACT

Setting the scenesClimatologists use model-based 'scenarios' to provide plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold when evaluating uncertainty about the effects of human actions on climate. The traditional method of establishing these scenarios was a time-consuming sequential process, each discipline taking turns to add data and complexity. As Richard Moss and colleagues explain in a Perspectives review, climate change researchers have now established a new coordinated parallel process that integrates the tasks of developing scenarios, making projections and evaluating their impact. These 'next generation' scenarios should make for faster, more rigorous assessment of proposals for climate mitigation and adaptation. More... »

PAGES

747-756

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/nature08823

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08823

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1006069800

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20148028


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22 schema:description Setting the scenesClimatologists use model-based 'scenarios' to provide plausible descriptions of how the future might unfold when evaluating uncertainty about the effects of human actions on climate. The traditional method of establishing these scenarios was a time-consuming sequential process, each discipline taking turns to add data and complexity. As Richard Moss and colleagues explain in a Perspectives review, climate change researchers have now established a new coordinated parallel process that integrates the tasks of developing scenarios, making projections and evaluating their impact. These 'next generation' scenarios should make for faster, more rigorous assessment of proposals for climate mitigation and adaptation.
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