Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle Open Access: True
2015-03
AUTHORSA S Ahmad, N Ormiston-Smith, P D Sasieni
ABSTRACTBACKGROUND: Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages. METHODS: We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored. RESULTS: The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates. CONCLUSIONS: The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime. More... »
PAGES943
http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/bjc.2014.606
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2014.606
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PUBMEDhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25647015
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