The orbital evolution of the asteroid Eros and implications for collision with the Earth View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

1996-04

AUTHORS

P. Michel, P. Farinella, Ch. Froeschlé

ABSTRACT

THE population of asteroids that cross the Earth's orbit is responsible for most of the terrestrial impacts of kilometre-size objects, of which there may be several per million years1. About 150 Earth-crossing asteroids are known, although many more are thought to exist2. Asteroids that come close to the Earth's orbit, but do not currently cross it, may also pose a threat if they evolve onto Earth-crossing orbits. The asteroid 433 Eros, with a dia-meter of ∼22 km and a perihelion of 1.13 AU (where 1 AU is the average distance of the Earth from the Sun), is the second-largest near-Earth asteroid3. Here we report a study of the dynamical evolution of Eros's orbit over a period of two million years. We identify an orbital resonance with Mars that has the potential to perturb Mars-crossing asteroids, such as Eros, onto Earth-crossing orbits; of eight trial orbits that closely match Eros's present orbital parameters, three become Earth-crossing on the timescale of our simulations, and one of these hits the Earth after 1.14 Myr. Although our simulations indicate no significant danger of a catastrophic impact by this large near-Earth asteroid during the next ∼105 years, such a collision is likely in the far future. More... »

PAGES

689-691

References to SciGraph publications

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/380689a0

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/380689a0

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1042099677


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