Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

1993-02

AUTHORS

James C. Knox

ABSTRACT

RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions, rather than individual flooding events1–5. Historical accounts suggest, however, that such events may have had a considerable regional impact6–9 even in the face of any relatively modest climate change8. Here I present a 7,000-year geological record of overbank floods for upper Mississippi river tributaries in mid-continent North America, which provides concrete evidence for a high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. During a warmer, drier period between about 3,300 and 5,000 years ago, the largest, extremely rare floods were relatively small—the size of floods that now occur about once every fifty years. After ~3,300 years ago, when the climate became cooler and wetter, an abrupt shift in flood behaviour occurred, with frequent floods of a size that now recurs only once every 500 years or more. Still larger floods occurred between about AD 1250 and 1450, during the transition from the medieval warm interval to the cooler Little Ice Age. All of these changes were apparently associated with changes in mean annual temperature of only about 1–2 °C and changes in mean annual precipitation of 10–20%. More... »

PAGES

430

References to SciGraph publications

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/361430a0

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025255712


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/0406", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/04", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Earth Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "familyName": "Knox", 
        "givenName": "James C.", 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "citation": [
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90036-5", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002064366"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90060-8", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030723694"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/358119a0", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035488166", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1038/358119a0"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1990)102<1646:acrohe>2.3.co;2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038988762"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(84)90029-2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1040898440"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.2307/2937306", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045564179"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1977.tb01133.x", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046864942"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "1993-02", 
    "datePublishedReg": "1993-02-01", 
    "description": "RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions, rather than individual flooding events1\u20135. Historical accounts suggest, however, that such events may have had a considerable regional impact6\u20139 even in the face of any relatively modest climate change8. Here I present a 7,000-year geological record of overbank floods for upper Mississippi river tributaries in mid-continent North America, which provides concrete evidence for a high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. During a warmer, drier period between about 3,300 and 5,000 years ago, the largest, extremely rare floods were relatively small\u2014the size of floods that now occur about once every fifty years. After ~3,300 years ago, when the climate became cooler and wetter, an abrupt shift in flood behaviour occurred, with frequent floods of a size that now recurs only once every 500 years or more. Still larger floods occurred between about AD 1250 and 1450, during the transition from the medieval warm interval to the cooler Little Ice Age. All of these changes were apparently associated with changes in mean annual temperature of only about 1\u20132 \u00b0C and changes in mean annual precipitation of \ue2fa10\u201320%.", 
    "genre": "non_research_article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/361430a0", 
    "inLanguage": [
      "en"
    ], 
    "isAccessibleForFree": false, 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1018957", 
        "issn": [
          "0090-0028", 
          "1476-4687"
        ], 
        "name": "Nature", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "6411", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "361"
      }
    ], 
    "name": "Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate", 
    "pagination": "430", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "readcube_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "78516a948d9a5d97041f6501d9873b232a51327337a618ac8dcd1fe01ccadabe"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1038/361430a0"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1025255712"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1038/361430a0", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025255712"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2019-04-10T19:45", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-uberresearch-data-dimensions-target-20181106-alternative/cleanup/v134/2549eaecd7973599484d7c17b260dba0a4ecb94b/merge/v9/a6c9fde33151104705d4d7ff012ea9563521a3ce/jats-lookup/v90/0000000001_0000000264/records_8681_00000424.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/361430a0"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

78 TRIPLES      21 PREDICATES      34 URIs      19 LITERALS      7 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1038/361430a0 schema:about anzsrc-for:04
2 anzsrc-for:0406
3 schema:author Ndcc30bb1a88442bb951325074d32c390
4 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1038/358119a0
5 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(84)90029-2
6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90036-5
7 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90060-8
8 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1977.tb01133.x
9 https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1990)102<1646:acrohe>2.3.co;2
10 https://doi.org/10.2307/2937306
11 schema:datePublished 1993-02
12 schema:datePublishedReg 1993-02-01
13 schema:description RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions, rather than individual flooding events1–5. Historical accounts suggest, however, that such events may have had a considerable regional impact6–9 even in the face of any relatively modest climate change8. Here I present a 7,000-year geological record of overbank floods for upper Mississippi river tributaries in mid-continent North America, which provides concrete evidence for a high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. During a warmer, drier period between about 3,300 and 5,000 years ago, the largest, extremely rare floods were relatively small—the size of floods that now occur about once every fifty years. After ~3,300 years ago, when the climate became cooler and wetter, an abrupt shift in flood behaviour occurred, with frequent floods of a size that now recurs only once every 500 years or more. Still larger floods occurred between about AD 1250 and 1450, during the transition from the medieval warm interval to the cooler Little Ice Age. All of these changes were apparently associated with changes in mean annual temperature of only about 1–2 °C and changes in mean annual precipitation of 10–20%.
14 schema:genre non_research_article
15 schema:inLanguage en
16 schema:isAccessibleForFree false
17 schema:isPartOf N4b17fec83b414e499e48c0855f6a00fc
18 N4d774dc628124267bdb3434133763c40
19 sg:journal.1018957
20 schema:name Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate
21 schema:pagination 430
22 schema:productId N5b5334a72f1549a19f21c58ae84f296f
23 N6b7cfcc248104539b66074d82a700934
24 N7ad0c90aa4fe4a55a96218c7dced8693
25 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025255712
26 https://doi.org/10.1038/361430a0
27 schema:sdDatePublished 2019-04-10T19:45
28 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
29 schema:sdPublisher Nb52cc6c320944e74a2bd5ff9367afc6d
30 schema:url https://www.nature.com/articles/361430a0
31 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
32 sgo:sdDataset articles
33 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
34 N4b17fec83b414e499e48c0855f6a00fc schema:issueNumber 6411
35 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
36 N4d774dc628124267bdb3434133763c40 schema:volumeNumber 361
37 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
38 N5b5334a72f1549a19f21c58ae84f296f schema:name doi
39 schema:value 10.1038/361430a0
40 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
41 N6b7cfcc248104539b66074d82a700934 schema:name readcube_id
42 schema:value 78516a948d9a5d97041f6501d9873b232a51327337a618ac8dcd1fe01ccadabe
43 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
44 N7ad0c90aa4fe4a55a96218c7dced8693 schema:name dimensions_id
45 schema:value pub.1025255712
46 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
47 Naf0265579e9441e78edfefe0eaab9f89 schema:familyName Knox
48 schema:givenName James C.
49 rdf:type schema:Person
50 Nb52cc6c320944e74a2bd5ff9367afc6d schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
51 rdf:type schema:Organization
52 Ndcc30bb1a88442bb951325074d32c390 rdf:first Naf0265579e9441e78edfefe0eaab9f89
53 rdf:rest rdf:nil
54 anzsrc-for:04 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
55 schema:name Earth Sciences
56 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
57 anzsrc-for:0406 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
58 schema:name Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
59 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
60 sg:journal.1018957 schema:issn 0090-0028
61 1476-4687
62 schema:name Nature
63 rdf:type schema:Periodical
64 sg:pub.10.1038/358119a0 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035488166
65 https://doi.org/10.1038/358119a0
66 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
67 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(84)90029-2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1040898440
68 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
69 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90036-5 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002064366
70 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
71 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90060-8 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030723694
72 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
73 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1977.tb01133.x schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046864942
74 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
75 https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1990)102<1646:acrohe>2.3.co;2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038988762
76 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
77 https://doi.org/10.2307/2937306 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045564179
78 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...