Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

1993-02

AUTHORS

James C. Knox

ABSTRACT

RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions, rather than individual flooding events1–5. Historical accounts suggest, however, that such events may have had a considerable regional impact6–9 even in the face of any relatively modest climate change8. Here I present a 7,000-year geological record of overbank floods for upper Mississippi river tributaries in mid-continent North America, which provides concrete evidence for a high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. During a warmer, drier period between about 3,300 and 5,000 years ago, the largest, extremely rare floods were relatively small—the size of floods that now occur about once every fifty years. After ~3,300 years ago, when the climate became cooler and wetter, an abrupt shift in flood behaviour occurred, with frequent floods of a size that now recurs only once every 500 years or more. Still larger floods occurred between about AD 1250 and 1450, during the transition from the medieval warm interval to the cooler Little Ice Age. All of these changes were apparently associated with changes in mean annual temperature of only about 1–2 °C and changes in mean annual precipitation of 10–20%. More... »

PAGES

430

References to SciGraph publications

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/361430a0

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025255712


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/0406", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/04", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Earth Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "familyName": "Knox", 
        "givenName": "James C.", 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "citation": [
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90036-5", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002064366"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90060-8", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030723694"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/358119a0", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035488166", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1038/358119a0"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1990)102<1646:acrohe>2.3.co;2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038988762"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(84)90029-2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1040898440"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.2307/2937306", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045564179"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1977.tb01133.x", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046864942"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "1993-02", 
    "datePublishedReg": "1993-02-01", 
    "description": "RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions, rather than individual flooding events1\u20135. Historical accounts suggest, however, that such events may have had a considerable regional impact6\u20139 even in the face of any relatively modest climate change8. Here I present a 7,000-year geological record of overbank floods for upper Mississippi river tributaries in mid-continent North America, which provides concrete evidence for a high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. During a warmer, drier period between about 3,300 and 5,000 years ago, the largest, extremely rare floods were relatively small\u2014the size of floods that now occur about once every fifty years. After ~3,300 years ago, when the climate became cooler and wetter, an abrupt shift in flood behaviour occurred, with frequent floods of a size that now recurs only once every 500 years or more. Still larger floods occurred between about AD 1250 and 1450, during the transition from the medieval warm interval to the cooler Little Ice Age. All of these changes were apparently associated with changes in mean annual temperature of only about 1\u20132 \u00b0C and changes in mean annual precipitation of \ue2fa10\u201320%.", 
    "genre": "non_research_article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/361430a0", 
    "inLanguage": [
      "en"
    ], 
    "isAccessibleForFree": false, 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1018957", 
        "issn": [
          "0090-0028", 
          "1476-4687"
        ], 
        "name": "Nature", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "6411", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "361"
      }
    ], 
    "name": "Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate", 
    "pagination": "430", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "readcube_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "78516a948d9a5d97041f6501d9873b232a51327337a618ac8dcd1fe01ccadabe"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1038/361430a0"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1025255712"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1038/361430a0", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025255712"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2019-04-10T19:45", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-uberresearch-data-dimensions-target-20181106-alternative/cleanup/v134/2549eaecd7973599484d7c17b260dba0a4ecb94b/merge/v9/a6c9fde33151104705d4d7ff012ea9563521a3ce/jats-lookup/v90/0000000001_0000000264/records_8681_00000424.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/361430a0"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1038/361430a0'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

78 TRIPLES      21 PREDICATES      34 URIs      19 LITERALS      7 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1038/361430a0 schema:about anzsrc-for:04
2 anzsrc-for:0406
3 schema:author N1aa219c0f3dc4d67bbca04e088b1df68
4 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1038/358119a0
5 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(84)90029-2
6 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90036-5
7 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90060-8
8 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1977.tb01133.x
9 https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1990)102<1646:acrohe>2.3.co;2
10 https://doi.org/10.2307/2937306
11 schema:datePublished 1993-02
12 schema:datePublishedReg 1993-02-01
13 schema:description RECENT examinations of the possible hydrological response to global warming have emphasized changes in average conditions, rather than individual flooding events1–5. Historical accounts suggest, however, that such events may have had a considerable regional impact6–9 even in the face of any relatively modest climate change8. Here I present a 7,000-year geological record of overbank floods for upper Mississippi river tributaries in mid-continent North America, which provides concrete evidence for a high sensitivity of flood occurrence to changing climate. During a warmer, drier period between about 3,300 and 5,000 years ago, the largest, extremely rare floods were relatively small—the size of floods that now occur about once every fifty years. After ~3,300 years ago, when the climate became cooler and wetter, an abrupt shift in flood behaviour occurred, with frequent floods of a size that now recurs only once every 500 years or more. Still larger floods occurred between about AD 1250 and 1450, during the transition from the medieval warm interval to the cooler Little Ice Age. All of these changes were apparently associated with changes in mean annual temperature of only about 1–2 °C and changes in mean annual precipitation of 10–20%.
14 schema:genre non_research_article
15 schema:inLanguage en
16 schema:isAccessibleForFree false
17 schema:isPartOf N85f8047b32b5408f8e2b9dbaa409884f
18 Nee2479090d6f49aaa40741094f6e3796
19 sg:journal.1018957
20 schema:name Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate
21 schema:pagination 430
22 schema:productId N133c1b7be87249fa988cc724222388f2
23 N2337b383dec44895ae3cec4fb647b6fd
24 Nc951a656739747f4bc1e32fea48e400c
25 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025255712
26 https://doi.org/10.1038/361430a0
27 schema:sdDatePublished 2019-04-10T19:45
28 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
29 schema:sdPublisher N3f5ed67cecf74abf88eb22d374a684d2
30 schema:url https://www.nature.com/articles/361430a0
31 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
32 sgo:sdDataset articles
33 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
34 N133c1b7be87249fa988cc724222388f2 schema:name dimensions_id
35 schema:value pub.1025255712
36 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
37 N1aa219c0f3dc4d67bbca04e088b1df68 rdf:first N5657d738c17b45dd9c9ffc2a423c4d7a
38 rdf:rest rdf:nil
39 N2337b383dec44895ae3cec4fb647b6fd schema:name doi
40 schema:value 10.1038/361430a0
41 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
42 N3f5ed67cecf74abf88eb22d374a684d2 schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
43 rdf:type schema:Organization
44 N5657d738c17b45dd9c9ffc2a423c4d7a schema:familyName Knox
45 schema:givenName James C.
46 rdf:type schema:Person
47 N85f8047b32b5408f8e2b9dbaa409884f schema:issueNumber 6411
48 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
49 Nc951a656739747f4bc1e32fea48e400c schema:name readcube_id
50 schema:value 78516a948d9a5d97041f6501d9873b232a51327337a618ac8dcd1fe01ccadabe
51 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
52 Nee2479090d6f49aaa40741094f6e3796 schema:volumeNumber 361
53 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
54 anzsrc-for:04 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
55 schema:name Earth Sciences
56 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
57 anzsrc-for:0406 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
58 schema:name Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
59 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
60 sg:journal.1018957 schema:issn 0090-0028
61 1476-4687
62 schema:name Nature
63 rdf:type schema:Periodical
64 sg:pub.10.1038/358119a0 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035488166
65 https://doi.org/10.1038/358119a0
66 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
67 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(84)90029-2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1040898440
68 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
69 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(85)90036-5 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002064366
70 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
71 https://doi.org/10.1016/0033-5894(86)90060-8 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030723694
72 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
73 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1977.tb01133.x schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046864942
74 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
75 https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1990)102<1646:acrohe>2.3.co;2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038988762
76 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
77 https://doi.org/10.2307/2937306 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045564179
78 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...