Predicting the Peak in World Oil Production View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2002-09

AUTHORS

Alfred J. Cavallo

ABSTRACT

The US Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently predicted that world oil production could continue to increase for more than three decades, based on the recent US Geological Survey (USGS) evaluation of world oil resources and a simple, transparent model. However, it can be shown that this model is not consistent with actual oil production records in many different regions, particularly that of the US, from which it was derived. A more careful application of the EIA model, using the same resource estimates, indicates that at best non-OPEC oil production can increase for less than two decades, and should begin to decline at the latest sometime between 2015 and 2020. OPEC at this point will completely control the world oil market and will need to meet increased demand as well as compensate for declining production of non-OPEC producers. OPEC could control the market even sooner than this, given its larger share of proven oil reserves, probable difficulties in transforming non-OPEC undiscovered reserves into proven reserves, and the converging interests of all oil producers as reserves are depleted. This has significant implications for the world economy and for US national security. More... »

PAGES

187-195

References to SciGraph publications

  • 1999-09. Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production in NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH
  • 1998-03. The End of Cheap Oil in SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN
  • Journal

    TITLE

    Natural Resources Research

    ISSUE

    3

    VOLUME

    11

    Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1023/a:1019856621335

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/a:1019856621335

    DIMENSIONS

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