Evaluation of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions during 2009 season of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2011-08

AUTHORS

Russell L. Elsberry, Mary S. Jordan, Frederic Vitart

ABSTRACT

The performance of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events (formation plus track) made once a week during the 2009 season is evaluated with the same procedures as for the 2008 season. Seventeen of the 23 tropical cyclones during the 2009 season occurred during multiple storm scenarios that are more difficult to predict, and many of the deficient track predictions involved unusual and rapidly changing tracks that typically involve interactions with adjacent synoptic circulations that are not predictable on intraseasonal timescales (10–30 days). Such incorrect predictions of the duration and tracks of these multiple cyclones were found to degrade the performance in predicting subsequent tropical cyclone formations and tracks during the 32-day integration. Predominantly northward tracks throughout the life cycle tended to be less predictable on intraseasonal timescales. Given these caveats, the overall performance of the ECMWF ensemble for the 12 typhoons was more successful than during the 2008 season. However, the performance for three tropical storms during the 2009 season was less successful due to the difficult track forecast scenarios. A surprisingly good performance was found in predicting the formation location and early track segments of eight minimal tropical storms or tropical depressions. The less satisfactory aspect for many of the late season tropical depressions was that the ECMWF ensemble continued to predict member vortices for extended periods after the system had actually dissipated. More... »

PAGES

305

References to SciGraph publications

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1052021292


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/0401", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Atmospheric Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/04", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Earth Sciences", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Naval Postgraduate School", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1108.8", 
          "name": [
            "Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA", 
            "Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, 589 Dyer Road, Room 254, 93943-5114, Monterey, California, USA"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Elsberry", 
        "givenName": "Russell L.", 
        "id": "sg:person.01224775454.71", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01224775454.71"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "Naval Postgraduate School", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1108.8", 
          "name": [
            "Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Jordan", 
        "givenName": "Mary S.", 
        "id": "sg:person.010515417270.26", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.010515417270.26"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }, 
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "name": [
            "European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, UK"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Vitart", 
        "givenName": "Frederic", 
        "id": "sg:person.016103603413.15", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.016103603413.15"
        ], 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "citation": [
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr2262.1", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1001999226"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0641:dtctfe>2.0.co;2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1015226872"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl039089", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021624888"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s13143-010-0013-4", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045299187", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0013-4"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s13143-010-0013-4", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045299187", 
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0013-4"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0662:dtctfe>2.0.co;2", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1047386523"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "https://doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3343.1", 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1050909299"
        ], 
        "type": "CreativeWork"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "2011-08", 
    "datePublishedReg": "2011-08-01", 
    "description": "The performance of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events (formation plus track) made once a week during the 2009 season is evaluated with the same procedures as for the 2008 season. Seventeen of the 23 tropical cyclones during the 2009 season occurred during multiple storm scenarios that are more difficult to predict, and many of the deficient track predictions involved unusual and rapidly changing tracks that typically involve interactions with adjacent synoptic circulations that are not predictable on intraseasonal timescales (10\u201330 days). Such incorrect predictions of the duration and tracks of these multiple cyclones were found to degrade the performance in predicting subsequent tropical cyclone formations and tracks during the 32-day integration. Predominantly northward tracks throughout the life cycle tended to be less predictable on intraseasonal timescales. Given these caveats, the overall performance of the ECMWF ensemble for the 12 typhoons was more successful than during the 2008 season. However, the performance for three tropical storms during the 2009 season was less successful due to the difficult track forecast scenarios. A surprisingly good performance was found in predicting the formation location and early track segments of eight minimal tropical storms or tropical depressions. The less satisfactory aspect for many of the late season tropical depressions was that the ECMWF ensemble continued to predict member vortices for extended periods after the system had actually dissipated.", 
    "genre": "non_research_article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8", 
    "inLanguage": [
      "en"
    ], 
    "isAccessibleForFree": false, 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1136296", 
        "issn": [
          "1976-7633", 
          "1976-7951"
        ], 
        "name": "Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "4", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "47"
      }
    ], 
    "name": "Evaluation of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions during 2009 season of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales", 
    "pagination": "305", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "readcube_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "f7cc2aba5eb7743c5602f40f5d07a639b54e86514c808dee003c9127094b3cb9"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1052021292"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1052021292"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2019-04-11T02:11", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-uberresearch-data-dimensions-target-20181106-alternative/cleanup/v134/2549eaecd7973599484d7c17b260dba0a4ecb94b/merge/v9/a6c9fde33151104705d4d7ff012ea9563521a3ce/jats-lookup/v90/0000000001_0000000264/records_8700_00000524.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "http://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs13143-011-0017-8"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

97 TRIPLES      21 PREDICATES      33 URIs      19 LITERALS      7 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8 schema:about anzsrc-for:04
2 anzsrc-for:0401
3 schema:author N413f8faaacee42d1bf8772f10f7817e0
4 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1007/s13143-010-0013-4
5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl039089
6 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0641:dtctfe>2.0.co;2
7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0662:dtctfe>2.0.co;2
8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr2262.1
9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3343.1
10 schema:datePublished 2011-08
11 schema:datePublishedReg 2011-08-01
12 schema:description The performance of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events (formation plus track) made once a week during the 2009 season is evaluated with the same procedures as for the 2008 season. Seventeen of the 23 tropical cyclones during the 2009 season occurred during multiple storm scenarios that are more difficult to predict, and many of the deficient track predictions involved unusual and rapidly changing tracks that typically involve interactions with adjacent synoptic circulations that are not predictable on intraseasonal timescales (10–30 days). Such incorrect predictions of the duration and tracks of these multiple cyclones were found to degrade the performance in predicting subsequent tropical cyclone formations and tracks during the 32-day integration. Predominantly northward tracks throughout the life cycle tended to be less predictable on intraseasonal timescales. Given these caveats, the overall performance of the ECMWF ensemble for the 12 typhoons was more successful than during the 2008 season. However, the performance for three tropical storms during the 2009 season was less successful due to the difficult track forecast scenarios. A surprisingly good performance was found in predicting the formation location and early track segments of eight minimal tropical storms or tropical depressions. The less satisfactory aspect for many of the late season tropical depressions was that the ECMWF ensemble continued to predict member vortices for extended periods after the system had actually dissipated.
13 schema:genre non_research_article
14 schema:inLanguage en
15 schema:isAccessibleForFree false
16 schema:isPartOf N4fdd317416674549ad483edf751d4cce
17 N56d5cec78e43426db3e4d2c8df823bd8
18 sg:journal.1136296
19 schema:name Evaluation of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions during 2009 season of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales
20 schema:pagination 305
21 schema:productId N5341212c07974116b686f5052c28917f
22 Nab22a60456cf49b1b6865177328a0062
23 Ned7ef74fe3d04b59bfbc51f655489eca
24 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1052021292
25 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8
26 schema:sdDatePublished 2019-04-11T02:11
27 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
28 schema:sdPublisher Ndd1a04148ccd433db99e22a17a9b6f8f
29 schema:url http://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs13143-011-0017-8
30 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
31 sgo:sdDataset articles
32 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
33 N413f8faaacee42d1bf8772f10f7817e0 rdf:first sg:person.01224775454.71
34 rdf:rest Nfb333031badc4d598de55ec3449bd896
35 N4fdd317416674549ad483edf751d4cce schema:volumeNumber 47
36 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
37 N5341212c07974116b686f5052c28917f schema:name dimensions_id
38 schema:value pub.1052021292
39 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
40 N56d5cec78e43426db3e4d2c8df823bd8 schema:issueNumber 4
41 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
42 Nab22a60456cf49b1b6865177328a0062 schema:name doi
43 schema:value 10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8
44 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
45 Nc2b13da611404cdc885e3e7db1cc9e5f schema:name European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, UK
46 rdf:type schema:Organization
47 Ndd1a04148ccd433db99e22a17a9b6f8f schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
48 rdf:type schema:Organization
49 Ned7ef74fe3d04b59bfbc51f655489eca schema:name readcube_id
50 schema:value f7cc2aba5eb7743c5602f40f5d07a639b54e86514c808dee003c9127094b3cb9
51 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
52 Nf43ca5fb743a4edabe6c184446350904 rdf:first sg:person.016103603413.15
53 rdf:rest rdf:nil
54 Nfb333031badc4d598de55ec3449bd896 rdf:first sg:person.010515417270.26
55 rdf:rest Nf43ca5fb743a4edabe6c184446350904
56 anzsrc-for:04 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
57 schema:name Earth Sciences
58 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
59 anzsrc-for:0401 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
60 schema:name Atmospheric Sciences
61 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
62 sg:journal.1136296 schema:issn 1976-7633
63 1976-7951
64 schema:name Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
65 rdf:type schema:Periodical
66 sg:person.010515417270.26 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1108.8
67 schema:familyName Jordan
68 schema:givenName Mary S.
69 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.010515417270.26
70 rdf:type schema:Person
71 sg:person.01224775454.71 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1108.8
72 schema:familyName Elsberry
73 schema:givenName Russell L.
74 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01224775454.71
75 rdf:type schema:Person
76 sg:person.016103603413.15 schema:affiliation Nc2b13da611404cdc885e3e7db1cc9e5f
77 schema:familyName Vitart
78 schema:givenName Frederic
79 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.016103603413.15
80 rdf:type schema:Person
81 sg:pub.10.1007/s13143-010-0013-4 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045299187
82 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-010-0013-4
83 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
84 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl039089 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021624888
85 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
86 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0641:dtctfe>2.0.co;2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1015226872
87 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
88 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0662:dtctfe>2.0.co;2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1047386523
89 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
90 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007mwr2262.1 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1001999226
91 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
92 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010mwr3343.1 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1050909299
93 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
94 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1108.8 schema:alternateName Naval Postgraduate School
95 schema:name Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, 589 Dyer Road, Room 254, 93943-5114, Monterey, California, USA
96 Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, USA
97 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...