How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways? View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2018-01-09

AUTHORS

Xuanming Su, Hideo Shiogama, Katsumasa Tanaka, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yasuaki Hijioka, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Jingyu Liu

ABSTRACT

We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO2 (− 1.2 GtCO2 to 19.4 GtCO2), whereas this difference is 12.0 GtCO2 (− 6.9 GtCO2 to 5.1 GtCO2) for the 1.5 °C target (17–83% range). Total radiative forcing in 2100 is estimated to be 3.3 (2.7–3.9) Wm−2 for the 2 °C case and 2.5 (2.0–3.0) Wm−2 for the 1.5 °C case. Carbon prices in 2100 are 482 (181–732) USD(2005)/tCO2 and 713 (498–1014) USD(2005)/tCO2 for the 2 and 1.5 °C targets, respectively. We estimate GDP losses in 2100 that correspond to 1.9 (1.2–2.5)% of total gross output for the 2 °C target and 2.0 (1.5–2.7)% for the 1.5 °C target. More... »

PAGES

291-299

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11625-017-0525-2

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-017-0525-2

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1100270315

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30147782


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