Trends in the Mortality of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in the United States View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2017-12

AUTHORS

Eliza W. Beal, Dmitry Tumin, Ali Kabir, Dimitrios Moris, Xu-Feng Zhang, Jeffery Chakedis, Kenneth Washburn, Sylvester Black, Carl M. Schmidt, Timothy M. Pawlik

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Primary liver cancer mortality rates have been increasing in the US, but reported decreases among 35-49 year olds may foreshadow future declines. We sought to use age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to evaluate the contribution of cohort effects to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality trends in the US. METHODS: Data on HCC mortality were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics WONDER Online Multiple Cause of Death database, 1999-2015. Crude mortality rates were plotted by gender and age at death. Gender-specific restricted cubic spline APC models were fit to determine influence of birth cohort on incidence of HCC mortality, in reference to the 1940 birth cohort. RESULTS: Highest mortality rates were found among men ages 70+, with steepest increase in mortality observed among men 55-69 years old. Similar trends were found among females. Accounting for the cohort effect in the APC model markedly improved model fit (likelihood ratio test p < 0.001). Relative to the 1940 birth cohort, risk of mortality due to HCC was significantly higher in later as well as earlier cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: HCC-associated mortality continues to increase, secondary to an increase in the risk of HCC-associated mortality in more recent birth cohorts among both men and women. More... »

PAGES

2033-2038

References to SciGraph publications

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11605-017-3526-7

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11605-017-3526-7

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PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28785936


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44 schema:description INTRODUCTION: Primary liver cancer mortality rates have been increasing in the US, but reported decreases among 35-49 year olds may foreshadow future declines. We sought to use age-period-cohort (APC) modeling to evaluate the contribution of cohort effects to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality trends in the US. METHODS: Data on HCC mortality were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Health Statistics WONDER Online Multiple Cause of Death database, 1999-2015. Crude mortality rates were plotted by gender and age at death. Gender-specific restricted cubic spline APC models were fit to determine influence of birth cohort on incidence of HCC mortality, in reference to the 1940 birth cohort. RESULTS: Highest mortality rates were found among men ages 70+, with steepest increase in mortality observed among men 55-69 years old. Similar trends were found among females. Accounting for the cohort effect in the APC model markedly improved model fit (likelihood ratio test p < 0.001). Relative to the 1940 birth cohort, risk of mortality due to HCC was significantly higher in later as well as earlier cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: HCC-associated mortality continues to increase, secondary to an increase in the risk of HCC-associated mortality in more recent birth cohorts among both men and women.
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