Times from Infection to Disease-Induced Death and their Influence on Final Population Sizes After Epidemic Outbreaks View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2018-07

AUTHORS

Alex P. Farrell, James P. Collins, Amy L. Greer, Horst R. Thieme

ABSTRACT

For epidemic models, it is shown that fatal infectious diseases cannot drive the host population into extinction if the incidence function is upper density-dependent. This finding holds even if a latency period is included and the time from infection to disease-induced death has an arbitrary length distribution. However, if the incidence function is also lower density-dependent, very infectious diseases can lead to a drastic decline of the host population. Further, the final population size after an epidemic outbreak can possibly be substantially affected by the infection-age distribution of the initial infectives if the life expectations of infected individuals are an unbounded function of infection age (time since infection). This is the case for lognormal distributions, which fit data from infection experiments involving tiger salamander larvae and ranavirus better than gamma distributions and Weibull distributions. More... »

PAGES

1937-1961

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2018-12. Do fatal infectious diseases eradicate host species? in JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
  • 1977-12. A model for the spatial spread of an epidemic in JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
  • 2015. An Introduction to Mathematical Epidemiology in NONE
  • 1993-05. The saturating contact rate in marriage- and epidemic models in JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
  • 1978-07. Thresholds and travelling waves for the geographical spread of infection in JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
  • Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11538-018-0446-y

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-018-0446-y

    DIMENSIONS

    https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1104134033

    PUBMED

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29785520


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    140 School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University, 85287-1804, Tempe, AZ, USA
    141 rdf:type schema:Organization
     




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