Global warming projections using the human–earth system model BNU-HESM1.0 View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2016-12

AUTHORS

Shili Yang, Wenjie Dong, Jieming Chou, Jinming Feng, Zhigang Wei, Yan Guo, Xiaohang Wen, Ting Wei, Di Tian, Xian Zhu, Zhiyong Yang

ABSTRACT

Future climate change is usually projected by coupled earth system models under specific emission scenarios designed by integrated assessment models (IAMs), and this offline approach means there is no interaction between the coupled earth system models and the IAMs. This paper introduces a new method to design possible future emission scenarios and corresponding climate change, in which a simple economic and climate damage component is added to the coupled earth system model of Beijing Normal University (BNU-ESM). With the growth of population and technological expertise and the declining emission-to-output ratio described in the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, the projected carbon emission is 13.7 Gt C, resulting in a 2.4 °C warming by the end of the twenty-first century (2080–2099) compared with 1980–1999. This paper also suggests the importance of the land and ocean carbon cycle in determining the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is hoped that in the near future the next generation of coupled earth system models that include both the natural system and the social dimension will be developed. More... »

PAGES

1833-1838

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11434-016-1176-x

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-016-1176-x

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027885629


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