Do bets reveal beliefs? View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2017-09

AUTHORS

Jean Baccelli

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the preference-based approach to the identification of beliefs. It focuses on the main problem to which this approach is exposed, namely that of state-dependent utility. First, the problem is illustrated in full detail. Four types of state-dependent utility issues are distinguished. Second, a comprehensive strategy for identifying beliefs under state-dependent utility is presented and discussed. For the problem to be solved following this strategy, however, preferences need to extend beyond choices. We claim that this a necessary feature of any complete solution to the problem of state-dependent utility. We also argue that this is the main conceptual lesson to draw from it. We show that this lesson is of interest to both economists and philosophers. More... »

PAGES

3393-3419

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2001-12. De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist in THEORY AND DECISION
  • 2015-09. A penny for your thoughts: a survey of methods for eliciting beliefs in EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS
  • 1997-04. About the Insurability of Catastrophic Risks in THE GENEVA PAPERS ON RISK AND INSURANCE - ISSUES AND PRACTICE
  • 1996-11. Probabilities and beliefs in JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
  • 2011-09. A theory of Bayesian decision making with action-dependent subjective probabilities in ECONOMIC THEORY
  • 1994-01. Separating marginal utility and probabilistic risk aversion in THEORY AND DECISION
  • 2008-06. On Optimal Insurance in the Presence of Moral Hazard in THE GENEVA RISK AND INSURANCE REVIEW
  • 1995-01. Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities in JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
  • 1993-06. On the uniqueness of subjective probabilities in ECONOMIC THEORY
  • 2003-01. On the Representation of Beliefs by Probabilities in JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
  • Journal

    TITLE

    Synthese

    ISSUE

    9

    VOLUME

    194

    Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11229-015-0939-2

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-015-0939-2

    DIMENSIONS

    https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1033055972


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