When Daily Sunspot Births Become Positively Correlated View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2015-10

AUTHORS

Alexander Shapoval, Jean-Louis Le Mouël, Mikhail Shnirman, Vincent Courtillot

ABSTRACT

We study the first differences w(t) of the International Sunspot Number (ISSN) daily series for the time span 1850 – 2013. The one-day correlations ρ1 between w(t) and w(t+1) are computed within four-year sliding windows and are found to shift from negative to positive values near the end of Cycle 17 (∼1945). They remain positive during the last Grand Maximum and until ∼2009, when they fall to zero. We also identify a prominent regime change in ∼1915, strengthening previous evidence of major anomalies in solar activity at this date. We test an autoregressive process of order 1 (AR(1)) as a model that can reproduce the high-frequency component of ISSN: we compute ρ1 for this AR(1) process and find that it is negative. Positive values of ρ1 are found only if the process involves positive correlation: this leads us to suggest that the births of successive spots are positively correlated during the last Grand Maximum. More... »

PAGES

2709-2717

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11207-015-0778-9

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-015-0778-9

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1010624135


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