Elections, recession expectations and excessive debt: an unholy trinity View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2019-09

AUTHORS

Frank Bohn, Francisco José Veiga

ABSTRACT

In the literature, it has been suggested that political budget cycles are context-conditional, i.e., do not occur in all countries or under all circumstances. What about the underlying economic conditions? It has already has been shown that recessionary expectations reinforce the political budget cycle. This paper argues theoretically that opportunistic policymakers expecting a recession during an election year allow the primary deficit to increase even more when the stock of debt is very high, but reduce the deficit by more during an expected boom (in an election year). For the empirical estimation we use panel data from Portuguese municipalities. Plots of average marginal effects for election years show that differences between high- and low-debt municipalities become more pronounced in stronger expected recessions as well as booms; the stronger effect on the deficit in high-debt municipalities is caused by changes on both the revenue and the expenditure side. A whole armada of robustness tests (non-linear effects, alternative specifications of excessive debt and forecasts, various methods to account for time effects and clustering, several sample restrictions) confirms our results. More... »

PAGES

429-449

Journal

TITLE

Public Choice

ISSUE

3-4

VOLUME

180

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-019-00647-x

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112222297


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