Thresholds in climate migration View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2017-12-13

AUTHORS

Robert McLeman

ABSTRACT

Migration in response to climatic hazards or changes in climatic conditions can unfold in a variety of ways, ranging from barely observable, incremental changes in pre-existing migration flows to abrupt, non-linear population movements. The adoption of migration instead of in situ adaptation responses, and the high degree of variability in potential migration outcomes, in part reflects the presence of thresholds or tipping points within the processes of human-environment interaction through which climate adaptation and migration take place. This article reviews and makes linkages between existing research in climate adaptation, migration system dynamics, residential preferences, and risk perception to identify and explore the functioning and importance of thresholds. Parochial examples from the author’s published research on climate adaptation and migration in rural North America are used to illustrate. Six types of thresholds in response to climate hazards are identified: (1) Adaptation becomes necessary; (2) Adaptation becomes ineffective; (3) Substantive changes in land use/livelihoods become necessary; (4) In situ adaptation fails, migration ensues; (5) Migration rates become non-linear; and (6) Migration rates cease to be non-linear. Movement across thresholds is driven by context-specific characteristics of climate events, natural systems, and/or human systems. Transition from incremental to non-linear migration can be accelerated by people’s perceptions, by actions of influential individuals or groups, and by changes in key infrastructure, services, or other community assets. Non-linear climate migration events already occur at local and sub-regional scales. The potential for global scale, non-linear population movements later this century depends heavily on future greenhouse gas emission trends. The ability to identify and avoid thresholds that tip climate migration into a non-linear state will be of growing concern to policy makers and planners at all levels in coming decades. This article forms part of a special issue of this journal dedicated to the late Graeme Hugo, and the author draws heavily on past research by Professor Hugo and colleagues. More... »

PAGES

319-338

References to SciGraph publications

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  • 2011-06-08. Opportunities and Barriers for Adaptation and Local Adaptation Planning in Canadian Rural and Resource-Based Communities in CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN DEVELOPED NATIONS
  • 2016-03-05. Climate shocks and the timing of migration from Mexico in POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
  • 2015-07-27. Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2010-09-26. Migration and climate change: examining thresholds of change to guide effective adaptation decision-making in POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
  • 2016-11-17. Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2006-03-30. Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2013-09-13. Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned? in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2007-08-09. Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons in SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE
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  • 2010-05-14. Household access to capital and its effects on drought adaptation and migration: a case study of rural Alberta in the 1930s in POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
  • 2013-08-31. Migration and Environmental Change in Asia in PEOPLE ON THE MOVE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
  • 2011-10-20. Migration as adaptation in NATURE
  • 2008-02-19. On the (im-)possibilities of defining human climate thresholds in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2015-10-27. Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems in POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
  • 2015-12-17. Conclusion: Inequality and Migration as Adaptation—Where Do We Go from Here? in ENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION AND SOCIAL INEQUALITY
  • 2011-06-26. Soil and its influence on rural drought migration: insights from Depression-era Southwestern Saskatchewan, Canada in POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
  • 2007-06-15. Drought adaptation in rural eastern Oklahoma in the 1930s: lessons for climate change adaptation research in MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES FOR GLOBAL CHANGE
  • 2009-12-17. Impacts of population change on vulnerability and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability: a typology based on lessons from “a hard country” in POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT
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    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11111-017-0290-2

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