Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2009-03

AUTHORS

Jonas Rumpf, Helga Weindl, Peter Höppe, Ernst Rauch, Volker Schmidt

ABSTRACT

A method is introduced for assessing the probabilities and intensities of tropical cyclones at landfall and applied to data from the North Atlantic. First, a recently developed model for the basin-wide Monte-Carlo simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is enhanced and transferred to the North Atlantic basin. Subsequently, a large number of synthetic tracks is generated by means of an implementation of this model. This synthetic data is far more comprehensive than the available historical data, while exhibiting the same basic characteristics. It, thus, creates a more sound basis for assessing landfall probabilities than previously available, especially in areas with a low historical landfall frequency. More... »

PAGES

383-398

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9268-9

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1048250575


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