Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert’s Curve via Theoretical Modeling View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2008-03

AUTHORS

S. H. Mohr, G. M. Evans

ABSTRACT

A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert’s bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R2 value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert’s curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R2 values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2–3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013. More... »

PAGES

1-11

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11053-008-9059-8

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1011992403


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