Modelling Temporal Uncertainty in Archaeological Analysis View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2012-09

AUTHORS

Enrico R. Crema

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the problem of temporal uncertainty in archaeological analysis and how it affects archaeological interpretation. A probabilistic method is proposed as a potential solution for modelling and quantifying time when high levels of uncertainty restricts temporal knowledge and scientific datings are unavailable, while Monte Carlo simulation is suggested as a means to formally integrate such knowledge into actual analysis. A case study focusing on counts of prehistoric hunter–gatherer pithouses in Mid-Holocene Japan provides an example of how uncertainty can be problematic and bias the results of the most straightforward archaeological analysis and how the coupling of a probabilistic and simulation-based approach nonetheless offers a useful solution. The discussion that follows also addresses the need for more robust and quantifiable ways to illustrate the chronological flow of our archaeological narratives. More... »

PAGES

440-461

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2004. Monte Carlo Statistical Methods in NONE
  • 2002. Jomon Collectors and Foragers in BEYOND FORAGING AND COLLECTING
  • Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10816-011-9122-3

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816-011-9122-3

    DIMENSIONS

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