Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle
2006-09
AUTHORSM. R. Allen, N. P. Gillett, J. A. Kettleborough, G. Hegerl, R. Schnur, P. A. Stott, G. Boer, C. Covey, T. L. Delworth, G. S. Jones, J. F. B. Mitchell, T. P. Barnett
ABSTRACTWe assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing. More... »
PAGES491-544
http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6
DIMENSIONShttps://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046551871
JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.
TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT
[
{
"@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json",
"about": [
{
"id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/04",
"inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/",
"name": "Earth Sciences",
"type": "DefinedTerm"
},
{
"id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/0406",
"inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/",
"name": "Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience",
"type": "DefinedTerm"
}
],
"author": [
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford Clarendon Laboratory, OX1 3PU, Parks Road, UK",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4991.5",
"name": [
"Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford Clarendon Laboratory, OX1 3PU, Parks Road, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Allen",
"givenName": "M. R.",
"id": "sg:person.0600474550.17",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0600474550.17"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Climate Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.8273.e",
"name": [
"School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada",
"Climate Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Gillett",
"givenName": "N. P.",
"id": "sg:person.01327254600.70",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01327254600.70"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Met. Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.17100.37",
"name": [
"Space Science and Technology Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Didcot, UK",
"Met. Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Kettleborough",
"givenName": "J. A.",
"id": "sg:person.016335101543.46",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.016335101543.46"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.26009.3d",
"name": [
"Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Hegerl",
"givenName": "G.",
"id": "sg:person.0624607120.80",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0624607120.80"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.450268.d",
"name": [
"Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Schnur",
"givenName": "R.",
"id": "sg:person.013604667231.83",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.013604667231.83"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Met Office, Reading Unit, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.9435.b",
"name": [
"Met Office, Reading Unit, Dept. of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Stott",
"givenName": "P. A.",
"id": "sg:person.015667030077.29",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015667030077.29"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.410334.1",
"name": [
"The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, Canada"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Boer",
"givenName": "G.",
"id": "sg:person.014065267247.59",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.014065267247.59"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, USA",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.250008.f",
"name": [
"PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, USA"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Covey",
"givenName": "C.",
"id": "sg:person.016713166735.77",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.016713166735.77"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.482795.5",
"name": [
"NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Delworth",
"givenName": "T. L.",
"id": "sg:person.014151466245.18",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.014151466245.18"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Met. Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.17100.37",
"name": [
"Met. Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Jones",
"givenName": "G. S.",
"id": "sg:person.012111414471.07",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012111414471.07"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Met. Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.17100.37",
"name": [
"Met. Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Mitchell",
"givenName": "J. F. B.",
"id": "sg:person.012141527247.99",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012141527247.99"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Scripps Institution for Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA",
"id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.266100.3",
"name": [
"Scripps Institution for Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, USA"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Barnett",
"givenName": "T. P.",
"id": "sg:person.0605526475.34",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0605526475.34"
],
"type": "Person"
}
],
"citation": [
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-003-0314-8",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020771045",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0314-8"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/367325a0",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038450026",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/367325a0"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/pl00007929",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1034842545",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/pl00007929"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/432290a",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1011765664",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/432290a"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820050186",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008218600",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050186"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820050291",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007895196",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050291"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/pl00007921",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1005792655",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/pl00007921"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820050155",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1043746611",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050155"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/35036559",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1016303772",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/35036559"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/pl00007924",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044824443",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/pl00007924"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1047305108",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0313-9"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-004-0413-1",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1006823603",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0413-1"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820050337",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1041320058",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050337"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nature03089",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1028450143",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03089"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820000071",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1050110772",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000071"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/bf00210333",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1010636493",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00210333"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820000079",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1012213043",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000079"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/382039a0",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1029787674",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/382039a0"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820050185",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008860100",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050185"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/21164",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1039310835",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/21164"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s003820050168",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1033132277",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820050168"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-006-0119-7",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002190650",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0119-7"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
}
],
"datePublished": "2006-09",
"datePublishedReg": "2006-09-01",
"description": "We assess the extent to which observed large-scale changes in near-surface temperatures over the latter half of the twentieth century can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change as simulated by a range of climate models. The hypothesis that observed changes are entirely due to internal climate variability is rejected at a high confidence level independent of the climate model used to simulate either the anthropogenic signal or the internal variability. Where the relevant simulations are available, we also consider the alternative hypothesis that observed changes are due entirely to natural external influences, including solar variability and explosive volcanic activity. We allow for the possibility that feedback processes, other than those simulated by the models considered, may be amplifying the observed response to these natural influences by an unknown amount. Even allowing for this possibility, the hypothesis of no anthropogenic influence can be rejected at the 5% level in almost all cases. The influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emerges as a substantial contributor to recent observed climate change, with the estimated trend attributable to greenhouse forcing similar in magnitude to the total observed warming over the 20th century. Much greater uncertainty remains in the response to other external influences on climate, particularly the response to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols and to solar and volcanic forcing. Our results remain dependent on model-simulated signal patterns and internal variability, and would benefit considerably from a wider range of simulations, particularly of the responses to natural external forcing.",
"genre": "article",
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6",
"isAccessibleForFree": false,
"isFundedItemOf": [
{
"id": "sg:grant.3748100",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
}
],
"isPartOf": [
{
"id": "sg:journal.1051934",
"issn": [
"0169-3298",
"1573-0956"
],
"name": "Surveys in Geophysics",
"publisher": "Springer Nature",
"type": "Periodical"
},
{
"issueNumber": "5",
"type": "PublicationIssue"
},
{
"type": "PublicationVolume",
"volumeNumber": "27"
}
],
"keywords": [
"climate models",
"internal variability",
"anthropogenic influences",
"climate change",
"internal climate variability",
"natural external forcing",
"near-surface temperature",
"explosive volcanic activity",
"anthropogenic sulfate aerosols",
"anthropogenic greenhouse gases",
"observed climate change",
"surface temperature changes",
"anthropogenic climate change",
"large-scale changes",
"volcanic forcing",
"anthropogenic signal",
"volcanic activity",
"climate variability",
"observed warming",
"sulfate aerosols",
"solar variability",
"external forcing",
"natural influences",
"greenhouse gases",
"feedback processes",
"temperature changes",
"forcing",
"variability",
"great uncertainty",
"substantial contributor",
"unknown amount",
"latter half",
"high confidence level",
"observed response",
"warming",
"aerosols",
"climate",
"confidence level",
"century",
"changes",
"external influences",
"twentieth century",
"alternative hypothesis",
"gases",
"influence",
"uncertainty",
"magnitude",
"trends",
"simulations",
"model",
"wide range",
"range",
"contributor",
"relevant simulations",
"temperature",
"patterns",
"hypothesis",
"extent",
"amount",
"response",
"process",
"half",
"greenhouse",
"levels",
"signals",
"possibility",
"results",
"activity",
"cases",
"signal patterns"
],
"name": "Quantifying anthropogenic influence on recent near-surface temperature change",
"pagination": "491-544",
"productId": [
{
"name": "dimensions_id",
"type": "PropertyValue",
"value": [
"pub.1046551871"
]
},
{
"name": "doi",
"type": "PropertyValue",
"value": [
"10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6"
]
}
],
"sameAs": [
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6",
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046551871"
],
"sdDataset": "articles",
"sdDatePublished": "2022-08-04T16:56",
"sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/",
"sdPublisher": {
"name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project",
"type": "Organization"
},
"sdSource": "s3://com-springernature-scigraph/baseset/20220804/entities/gbq_results/article/article_430.jsonl",
"type": "ScholarlyArticle",
"url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6"
}
]
Download the RDF metadata as: json-ld nt turtle xml License info
JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.
curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6'
N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.
curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6'
Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.
curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6'
RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.
curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10712-006-9011-6'
This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.
323 TRIPLES
21 PREDICATES
117 URIs
87 LITERALS
6 BLANK NODES