Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2019-03-25

AUTHORS

Francisco Ralston Fonseca, Paulina Jaramillo, Mario Bergés, Edson Severnini

ABSTRACT

Climate change threatens all parts of the US electric power system, from electricity generation to distribution. An important dimension of this issue is the impact on electricity demand. While many studies have looked at these impacts, few have tried to represent this effect at higher temporal resolutions (such as daily or sub-daily) or to analyze its seasonal aspects. Our study expands on previous work to improve our understanding of how climate change can affect patterns of hourly electricity demand, the differences in these effects over different seasons, and how this in turn could affect the operations of the power system. For this analysis, we combine a linear regression model, a simplified economic dispatch model, and projections from twenty different climate models to analyze how climate change may affect seasonal demand patterns and, consequently, power plants dispatch. We use this method to analyze a case study of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The results suggest that climate change can result in an average increase in annual electricity consumption in the TVA region of 6% by the end of the century and an increase in the frequency of peak demand values (the maximum quantity of electricity demanded during an hour). However, this increase is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. During summer, total electricity consumption can increase on average by 20% while during winter, it may decrease on average by 6% by the end of the century. Such changes in demand could result in changes in the typical dispatch patterns of TVA’s power plants. Estimated summer time capacity factors would increase (8 to 37% for natural gas and 71 to 84% for coal) and winter time capacity factor decrease (3% to virtually zero for natural gas and 67 to 60% for coal). Such results could affect the decision-making process of planning agents in the power sector. More... »

PAGES

1-17

Journal

TITLE

Climatic Change

ISSUE

N/A

VOLUME

N/A

Author Affiliations

From Grant

  • Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w

    DIMENSIONS

    https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112986015


    Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
    Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

    JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

    TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

    [
      {
        "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
        "about": [
          {
            "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/1402", 
            "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
            "name": "Applied Economics", 
            "type": "DefinedTerm"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/14", 
            "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
            "name": "Economics", 
            "type": "DefinedTerm"
          }
        ], 
        "author": [
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Carnegie Mellon University", 
              "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6", 
              "name": [
                "Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 129 Baker Hall, Pittsburgh, PA, USA"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Ralston Fonseca", 
            "givenName": "Francisco", 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Carnegie Mellon University", 
              "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6", 
              "name": [
                "Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 129 Baker Hall, Pittsburgh, PA, USA"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Jaramillo", 
            "givenName": "Paulina", 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Carnegie Mellon University", 
              "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6", 
              "name": [
                "Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Porter Hall 119, Pittsburgh, PA, USA"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Berg\u00e9s", 
            "givenName": "Mario", 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Carnegie Mellon University", 
              "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6", 
              "name": [
                "Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, 4800 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, USA"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Severnini", 
            "givenName": "Edson", 
            "type": "Person"
          }
        ], 
        "citation": [
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.03.003", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002110468"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.025", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002836333"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.025", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002836333"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.025", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002836333"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.025", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002836333"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1004723021", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1004723021", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007146261"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.11.021", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008017378"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008551216", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008551216", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1009520846"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2006.10.022", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1009791260"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-5442(03)00033-1", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1010336083"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-5442(03)00033-1", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1010336083"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.04.016", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014813384"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.04.016", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014813384"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nenergy.2016.103", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1019680658", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.103"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1221978110", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1024973242"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1080/00908319408909081", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025210882"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-005-5931-2", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025875475", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5931-2"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-005-5931-2", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025875475", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5931-2"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-5442(97)00034-0", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1026719753"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003823", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027513982"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.009", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030077301"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030778001", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2009.10.011", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1034947065"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026652", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1039188744"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.072", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1039829901"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1042953498"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044172830"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044172830"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044172830"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044172830"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044847621"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1080/00908319608908758", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045463286"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1048137272", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1051805105"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2006.12.005", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1053474312"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b00815", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055087520"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1021/es300145v", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055504276"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1021/es3023539", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055504988"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1021/es505027p", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055508669"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/ret016", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1059990422"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2005.857397", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1061776928"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2008.922254", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1061777656"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2011.2145010", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1061789420"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.740", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1064529521"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1083687720"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9a78", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1092697570"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1109/pes.2008.4596906", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1095132248"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817434", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1098688167"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226479903.001.0001", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1099542058"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1100232635"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }
        ], 
        "datePublished": "2019-03-25", 
        "datePublishedReg": "2019-03-25", 
        "description": "Climate change threatens all parts of the US electric power system, from electricity generation to distribution. An important dimension of this issue is the impact on electricity demand. While many studies have looked at these impacts, few have tried to represent this effect at higher temporal resolutions (such as daily or sub-daily) or to analyze its seasonal aspects. Our study expands on previous work to improve our understanding of how climate change can affect patterns of hourly electricity demand, the differences in these effects over different seasons, and how this in turn could affect the operations of the power system. For this analysis, we combine a linear regression model, a simplified economic dispatch model, and projections from twenty different climate models to analyze how climate change may affect seasonal demand patterns and, consequently, power plants dispatch. We use this method to analyze a case study of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The results suggest that climate change can result in an average increase in annual electricity consumption in the TVA region of 6% by the end of the century and an increase in the frequency of peak demand values (the maximum quantity of electricity demanded during an hour). However, this increase is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. During summer, total electricity consumption can increase on average by 20% while during winter, it may decrease on average by 6% by the end of the century. Such changes in demand could result in changes in the typical dispatch patterns of TVA\u2019s power plants. Estimated summer time capacity factors would increase (8 to 37% for natural gas and 71 to 84% for coal) and winter time capacity factor decrease (3% to virtually zero for natural gas and 67 to 60% for coal). Such results could affect the decision-making process of planning agents in the power sector.", 
        "genre": "research_article", 
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w", 
        "inLanguage": [
          "en"
        ], 
        "isAccessibleForFree": false, 
        "isFundedItemOf": [
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.3850967", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }
        ], 
        "isPartOf": [
          {
            "id": "sg:journal.1028211", 
            "issn": [
              "0165-0009", 
              "1573-1480"
            ], 
            "name": "Climatic Change", 
            "type": "Periodical"
          }
        ], 
        "name": "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns", 
        "pagination": "1-17", 
        "productId": [
          {
            "name": "readcube_id", 
            "type": "PropertyValue", 
            "value": [
              "6879fc3d2ec7960bfc04d608962733ff5a21e82bafb89587f595d13ce78b5047"
            ]
          }, 
          {
            "name": "doi", 
            "type": "PropertyValue", 
            "value": [
              "10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w"
            ]
          }, 
          {
            "name": "dimensions_id", 
            "type": "PropertyValue", 
            "value": [
              "pub.1112986015"
            ]
          }
        ], 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w", 
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112986015"
        ], 
        "sdDataset": "articles", 
        "sdDatePublished": "2019-04-11T13:04", 
        "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
        "sdPublisher": {
          "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "sdSource": "s3://com-uberresearch-data-dimensions-target-20181106-alternative/cleanup/v134/2549eaecd7973599484d7c17b260dba0a4ecb94b/merge/v9/a6c9fde33151104705d4d7ff012ea9563521a3ce/jats-lookup/v90/0000000366_0000000366/records_112035_00000001.jsonl", 
        "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
        "url": "https://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs10584-019-02413-w"
      }
    ]
     

    Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

    HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

    JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w'

    N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w'

    Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

    curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w'

    RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w'


     

    This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

    211 TRIPLES      21 PREDICATES      67 URIs      16 LITERALS      5 BLANK NODES

    Subject Predicate Object
    1 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w schema:about anzsrc-for:14
    2 anzsrc-for:1402
    3 schema:author Nb825e77e0ebd4c688b9cf0e582593f40
    4 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-005-5931-2
    5 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y
    6 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x
    7 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8
    8 sg:pub.10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7
    9 sg:pub.10.1038/nenergy.2016.103
    10 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688
    11 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312
    12 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413
    13 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.03.003
    14 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2006.10.022
    15 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003
    16 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2006.12.005
    17 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.009
    18 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.072
    19 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081
    20 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.04.016
    21 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051
    22 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.11.021
    23 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.025
    24 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2009.10.011
    25 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-5442(03)00033-1
    26 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-5442(97)00034-0
    27 https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817434
    28 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b00815
    29 https://doi.org/10.1021/es300145v
    30 https://doi.org/10.1021/es3023539
    31 https://doi.org/10.1021/es505027p
    32 https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003823
    33 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026652
    34 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1221978110
    35 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114
    36 https://doi.org/10.1080/00908319408909081
    37 https://doi.org/10.1080/00908319608908758
    38 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9a78
    39 https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/ret016
    40 https://doi.org/10.1109/pes.2008.4596906
    41 https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2005.857397
    42 https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2008.922254
    43 https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2011.2145010
    44 https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1
    45 https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.740
    46 https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226479903.001.0001
    47 schema:datePublished 2019-03-25
    48 schema:datePublishedReg 2019-03-25
    49 schema:description Climate change threatens all parts of the US electric power system, from electricity generation to distribution. An important dimension of this issue is the impact on electricity demand. While many studies have looked at these impacts, few have tried to represent this effect at higher temporal resolutions (such as daily or sub-daily) or to analyze its seasonal aspects. Our study expands on previous work to improve our understanding of how climate change can affect patterns of hourly electricity demand, the differences in these effects over different seasons, and how this in turn could affect the operations of the power system. For this analysis, we combine a linear regression model, a simplified economic dispatch model, and projections from twenty different climate models to analyze how climate change may affect seasonal demand patterns and, consequently, power plants dispatch. We use this method to analyze a case study of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). The results suggest that climate change can result in an average increase in annual electricity consumption in the TVA region of 6% by the end of the century and an increase in the frequency of peak demand values (the maximum quantity of electricity demanded during an hour). However, this increase is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. During summer, total electricity consumption can increase on average by 20% while during winter, it may decrease on average by 6% by the end of the century. Such changes in demand could result in changes in the typical dispatch patterns of TVA’s power plants. Estimated summer time capacity factors would increase (8 to 37% for natural gas and 71 to 84% for coal) and winter time capacity factor decrease (3% to virtually zero for natural gas and 67 to 60% for coal). Such results could affect the decision-making process of planning agents in the power sector.
    50 schema:genre research_article
    51 schema:inLanguage en
    52 schema:isAccessibleForFree false
    53 schema:isPartOf sg:journal.1028211
    54 schema:name Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns
    55 schema:pagination 1-17
    56 schema:productId N2fa7a8222a294469be67276d28f7957b
    57 Nc696fb462ab7468a92a951dbb35a6a7f
    58 Nef7294e66656458a916c160a36c9f611
    59 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112986015
    60 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w
    61 schema:sdDatePublished 2019-04-11T13:04
    62 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
    63 schema:sdPublisher N55bd0f07b41a441483a9c3507443fb00
    64 schema:url https://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs10584-019-02413-w
    65 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
    66 sgo:sdDataset articles
    67 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
    68 N001a13820a674585a244cf8e6599ffa9 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6
    69 schema:familyName Bergés
    70 schema:givenName Mario
    71 rdf:type schema:Person
    72 N127cca40441242d1b8478577fc6ca744 rdf:first Nb97f0b84fb8d4d839649e413917ba153
    73 rdf:rest rdf:nil
    74 N2fa7a8222a294469be67276d28f7957b schema:name doi
    75 schema:value 10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w
    76 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
    77 N3cad247e85c24d0b98ccc185e6a66064 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6
    78 schema:familyName Jaramillo
    79 schema:givenName Paulina
    80 rdf:type schema:Person
    81 N55bd0f07b41a441483a9c3507443fb00 schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
    82 rdf:type schema:Organization
    83 N798e8349734e4e3eae2f819a85010e4b schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6
    84 schema:familyName Ralston Fonseca
    85 schema:givenName Francisco
    86 rdf:type schema:Person
    87 N90e2966c70a14bf7bc0c1a6c49e0c49c rdf:first N3cad247e85c24d0b98ccc185e6a66064
    88 rdf:rest N9eedc8fdff654179aba27976d601fe97
    89 N9eedc8fdff654179aba27976d601fe97 rdf:first N001a13820a674585a244cf8e6599ffa9
    90 rdf:rest N127cca40441242d1b8478577fc6ca744
    91 Nb825e77e0ebd4c688b9cf0e582593f40 rdf:first N798e8349734e4e3eae2f819a85010e4b
    92 rdf:rest N90e2966c70a14bf7bc0c1a6c49e0c49c
    93 Nb97f0b84fb8d4d839649e413917ba153 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6
    94 schema:familyName Severnini
    95 schema:givenName Edson
    96 rdf:type schema:Person
    97 Nc696fb462ab7468a92a951dbb35a6a7f schema:name readcube_id
    98 schema:value 6879fc3d2ec7960bfc04d608962733ff5a21e82bafb89587f595d13ce78b5047
    99 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
    100 Nef7294e66656458a916c160a36c9f611 schema:name dimensions_id
    101 schema:value pub.1112986015
    102 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
    103 anzsrc-for:14 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
    104 schema:name Economics
    105 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
    106 anzsrc-for:1402 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
    107 schema:name Applied Economics
    108 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
    109 sg:grant.3850967 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w
    110 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    111 sg:journal.1028211 schema:issn 0165-0009
    112 1573-1480
    113 schema:name Climatic Change
    114 rdf:type schema:Periodical
    115 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-005-5931-2 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025875475
    116 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5931-2
    117 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    118 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008551216
    119 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9364-y
    120 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    121 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1048137272
    122 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x
    123 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    124 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1004723021
    125 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1380-8
    126 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    127 sg:pub.10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030778001
    128 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9522-7
    129 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    130 sg:pub.10.1038/nenergy.2016.103 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1019680658
    131 https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.103
    132 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    133 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044847621
    134 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    135 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2312 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007146261
    136 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    137 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3413 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1042953498
    138 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    139 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.03.003 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002110468
    140 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    141 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2006.10.022 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1009791260
    142 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    143 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1100232635
    144 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    145 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2006.12.005 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1053474312
    146 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    147 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.009 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030077301
    148 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    149 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.072 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1039829901
    150 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    151 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.081 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044172830
    152 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    153 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.04.016 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014813384
    154 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    155 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1009520846
    156 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    157 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.11.021 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008017378
    158 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    159 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2015.10.025 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002836333
    160 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    161 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2009.10.011 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1034947065
    162 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    163 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-5442(03)00033-1 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1010336083
    164 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    165 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0360-5442(97)00034-0 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1026719753
    166 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    167 https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511817434 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1098688167
    168 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    169 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b00815 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055087520
    170 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    171 https://doi.org/10.1021/es300145v schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055504276
    172 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    173 https://doi.org/10.1021/es3023539 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055504988
    174 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    175 https://doi.org/10.1021/es505027p schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1055508669
    176 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    177 https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003823 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027513982
    178 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    179 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006gl026652 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1039188744
    180 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    181 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1221978110 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1024973242
    182 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    183 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1083687720
    184 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    185 https://doi.org/10.1080/00908319408909081 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025210882
    186 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    187 https://doi.org/10.1080/00908319608908758 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045463286
    188 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    189 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9a78 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1092697570
    190 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    191 https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/ret016 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1059990422
    192 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    193 https://doi.org/10.1109/pes.2008.4596906 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1095132248
    194 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    195 https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2005.857397 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1061776928
    196 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    197 https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2008.922254 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1061777656
    198 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    199 https://doi.org/10.1109/tsg.2011.2145010 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1061789420
    200 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    201 https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1051805105
    202 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    203 https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.52.3.740 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1064529521
    204 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    205 https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226479903.001.0001 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1099542058
    206 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    207 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.147455.6 schema:alternateName Carnegie Mellon University
    208 schema:name Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Porter Hall 119, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
    209 Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 129 Baker Hall, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
    210 Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon University, 4800 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA, USA
    211 rdf:type schema:Organization
     




    Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


    ...