Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2018-11-10

AUTHORS

Theodore G. Shepherd, Emily Boyd, Raphael A. Calel, Sandra C. Chapman, Suraje Dessai, Ioana M. Dima-West, Hayley J. Fowler, Rachel James, Douglas Maraun, Olivia Martius, Catherine A. Senior, Adam H. Sobel, David A. Stainforth, Simon F. B. Tett, Kevin E. Trenberth, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Nicholas W. Watkins, Robert L. Wilby, Dimitri A. Zenghelis

ABSTRACT

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change. More... »

PAGES

555-571

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2016-12-05. The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2008-08-15. Agreeing to disagree: uncertainty management in assessing climate change, impacts and responses by the IPCC in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2013-11-17. Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2015-09-04. Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2005. Catastrophe Modeling: A New Approach to Managing Risk in NONE
  • 2016-03-30. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise in NATURE
  • 2012-10-02. Scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities and robust responses in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2006-07-21. Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet) in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2013-03-05. Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5 in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2005-09. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003 in NATURE
  • 2018-05-14. Future climate risk from compound events in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2014-09-21. Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2011-02-24. Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2017-11-02. Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2007-09. Remembering the past to imagine the future: the prospective brain in NATURE REVIEWS NEUROSCIENCE
  • 2015-01-28. Tales of future weather in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2015-06-22. Attribution of climate extreme events in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2016-02-18. A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution in CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS
  • 2017-05-15. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • Journal

    TITLE

    Climatic Change

    ISSUE

    3-4

    VOLUME

    151

    Author Affiliations

  • Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK
  • Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, 221 00, Lund, Sweden
  • London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK
  • Center for Space Physics, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA
  • Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, Leeds, UK
  • Willis Re, EC3M 7DQ, London, UK
  • School of Engineering, Newcastle University, NE1 7RU, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
  • Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7701, Rondebosch, South Africa
  • Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010, Graz, Austria
  • Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland
  • Met Office, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK
  • Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 10027, New York, NY, USA
  • Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK
  • School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, Edinburgh, UK
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80307, Boulder, CO, USA
  • Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands
  • Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
  • Department of Geography, Loughborough University, LE11 3TU, Loughborough, UK
  • Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9

    DIMENSIONS

    https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1109805635

    PUBMED

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30880852


    Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
    Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

    JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

    TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

    [
      {
        "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
        "about": [
          {
            "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/04", 
            "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
            "name": "Earth Sciences", 
            "type": "DefinedTerm"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/0401", 
            "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
            "name": "Atmospheric Sciences", 
            "type": "DefinedTerm"
          }
        ], 
        "author": [
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.9435.b", 
              "name": [
                "Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Shepherd", 
            "givenName": "Theodore G.", 
            "id": "sg:person.01143236440.49", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01143236440.49"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, 221 00, Lund, Sweden", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4514.4", 
              "name": [
                "Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, 221 00, Lund, Sweden"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Boyd", 
            "givenName": "Emily", 
            "id": "sg:person.01011420240.63", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01011420240.63"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.13063.37", 
              "name": [
                "McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, 20057, Washington, DC, USA", 
                "London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Calel", 
            "givenName": "Raphael A.", 
            "id": "sg:person.011114575717.72", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.011114575717.72"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Center for Space Physics, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.189504.1", 
              "name": [
                "Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK", 
                "Center for Space Physics, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Chapman", 
            "givenName": "Sandra C.", 
            "id": "sg:person.0751625753.34", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0751625753.34"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, Leeds, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.9909.9", 
              "name": [
                "Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, Leeds, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Dessai", 
            "givenName": "Suraje", 
            "id": "sg:person.014163577225.15", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.014163577225.15"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Willis Re, EC3M 7DQ, London, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/None", 
              "name": [
                "Willis Re, EC3M 7DQ, London, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Dima-West", 
            "givenName": "Ioana M.", 
            "id": "sg:person.014022362466.79", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.014022362466.79"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "School of Engineering, Newcastle University, NE1 7RU, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.1006.7", 
              "name": [
                "School of Engineering, Newcastle University, NE1 7RU, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Fowler", 
            "givenName": "Hayley J.", 
            "id": "sg:person.01161741260.82", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01161741260.82"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7701, Rondebosch, South Africa", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7836.a", 
              "name": [
                "Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY, Oxford, UK", 
                "Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7701, Rondebosch, South Africa"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "James", 
            "givenName": "Rachel", 
            "id": "sg:person.011777233423.60", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.011777233423.60"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010, Graz, Austria", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.5110.5", 
              "name": [
                "Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010, Graz, Austria"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Maraun", 
            "givenName": "Douglas", 
            "id": "sg:person.015170627150.69", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015170627150.69"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.5734.5", 
              "name": [
                "Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Martius", 
            "givenName": "Olivia", 
            "id": "sg:person.015572774535.37", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015572774535.37"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Met Office, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.17100.37", 
              "name": [
                "Met Office, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Senior", 
            "givenName": "Catherine A.", 
            "id": "sg:person.012173370255.92", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012173370255.92"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 10027, New York, NY, USA", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.21729.3f", 
              "name": [
                "Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 10027, New York, NY, USA"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Sobel", 
            "givenName": "Adam H.", 
            "id": "sg:person.0751020513.48", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0751020513.48"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.7372.1", 
              "name": [
                "London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK", 
                "Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Stainforth", 
            "givenName": "David A.", 
            "id": "sg:person.01357463170.43", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01357463170.43"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, Edinburgh, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4305.2", 
              "name": [
                "School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, Edinburgh, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Tett", 
            "givenName": "Simon F. B.", 
            "id": "sg:person.01025613710.20", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01025613710.20"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80307, Boulder, CO, USA", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.57828.30", 
              "name": [
                "National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80307, Boulder, CO, USA"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Trenberth", 
            "givenName": "Kevin E.", 
            "id": "sg:person.01172554715.26", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01172554715.26"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.12380.38", 
              "name": [
                "Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3730 AE, De Bilt, Netherlands", 
                "Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "van den Hurk", 
            "givenName": "Bart J. J. M.", 
            "id": "sg:person.010707714545.84", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.010707714545.84"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.10837.3d", 
              "name": [
                "London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK", 
                "Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK", 
                "Center for Space Physics, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA", 
                "Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Watkins", 
            "givenName": "Nicholas W.", 
            "id": "sg:person.013310431232.01", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.013310431232.01"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "Department of Geography, Loughborough University, LE11 3TU, Loughborough, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.6571.5", 
              "name": [
                "Department of Geography, Loughborough University, LE11 3TU, Loughborough, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Wilby", 
            "givenName": "Robert L.", 
            "id": "sg:person.0701572400.41", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0701572400.41"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }, 
          {
            "affiliation": {
              "alternateName": "London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK", 
              "id": "http://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.13063.37", 
              "name": [
                "London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK"
              ], 
              "type": "Organization"
            }, 
            "familyName": "Zenghelis", 
            "givenName": "Dimitri A.", 
            "id": "sg:person.012130641366.60", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012130641366.60"
            ], 
            "type": "Person"
          }
        ], 
        "citation": [
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2450", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045165989", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020496575", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008002140", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3418", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1092504071", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3418"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1017429140", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1103956857", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1043453583", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nrn2213", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007979902", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn2213"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3287", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1085411043", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022976281", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nature03972", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030525946", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/b100669", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014380157", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/b100669"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3168", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045597218", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3168"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-008-9444-7", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030474512", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9444-7"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-012-0574-6", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1048697107", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0574-6"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2657", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021001021", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nature17145", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1016136084", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/ngeo2253", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1037617723", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2051", 
            "sameAs": [
              "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007909771", 
              "https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2051"
            ], 
            "type": "CreativeWork"
          }
        ], 
        "datePublished": "2018-11-10", 
        "datePublishedReg": "2018-11-10", 
        "description": "As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a \u2018storyline\u2019 approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change.", 
        "genre": "article", 
        "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9", 
        "isAccessibleForFree": true, 
        "isFundedItemOf": [
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.3790900", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.2776007", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.2760753", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.7444150", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.6542407", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.2774307", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.3496553", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.2774281", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }, 
          {
            "id": "sg:grant.7084330", 
            "type": "MonetaryGrant"
          }
        ], 
        "isPartOf": [
          {
            "id": "sg:journal.1028211", 
            "issn": [
              "0165-0009", 
              "1573-1480"
            ], 
            "name": "Climatic Change", 
            "publisher": "Springer Nature", 
            "type": "Periodical"
          }, 
          {
            "issueNumber": "3-4", 
            "type": "PublicationIssue"
          }, 
          {
            "type": "PublicationVolume", 
            "volumeNumber": "151"
          }
        ], 
        "keywords": [
          "climate change", 
          "climate model simulations", 
          "climate change information", 
          "climate change research", 
          "plausible future events", 
          "regional model", 
          "model simulations", 
          "change research", 
          "change information", 
          "deep uncertainty", 
          "past events", 
          "physical basis", 
          "uncertainty", 
          "future events", 
          "events", 
          "false precision", 
          "physical aspects", 
          "probabilistic manner", 
          "representation of uncertainty", 
          "changes", 
          "compound risk", 
          "ensemble", 
          "boundaries", 
          "storylines", 
          "vulnerability", 
          "risk awareness", 
          "simulations", 
          "plausibility", 
          "actionable information", 
          "model", 
          "key aspects", 
          "particular vulnerability", 
          "information", 
          "factors", 
          "basis", 
          "precision", 
          "alternative approach", 
          "aspects", 
          "approach", 
          "representation", 
          "conventional approaches", 
          "powerful way", 
          "probability", 
          "limitations", 
          "relevant factors", 
          "point", 
          "emphasis", 
          "typology", 
          "reasons", 
          "risk", 
          "research", 
          "use", 
          "pathway", 
          "surprise", 
          "need", 
          "way", 
          "face", 
          "test", 
          "manner", 
          "decision points", 
          "human aspects", 
          "requirements", 
          "alternative", 
          "unfolding", 
          "people", 
          "awareness", 
          "stress test", 
          "appropriate stress test"
        ], 
        "name": "Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change", 
        "pagination": "555-571", 
        "productId": [
          {
            "name": "dimensions_id", 
            "type": "PropertyValue", 
            "value": [
              "pub.1109805635"
            ]
          }, 
          {
            "name": "doi", 
            "type": "PropertyValue", 
            "value": [
              "10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9"
            ]
          }, 
          {
            "name": "pubmed_id", 
            "type": "PropertyValue", 
            "value": [
              "30880852"
            ]
          }
        ], 
        "sameAs": [
          "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9", 
          "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1109805635"
        ], 
        "sdDataset": "articles", 
        "sdDatePublished": "2022-10-01T06:43", 
        "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
        "sdPublisher": {
          "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "sdSource": "s3://com-springernature-scigraph/baseset/20221001/entities/gbq_results/article/article_758.jsonl", 
        "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9"
      }
    ]
     

    Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

    HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

    JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9'

    N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9'

    Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

    curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9'

    RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

    curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9'


     

    This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

    408 TRIPLES      21 PREDICATES      112 URIs      85 LITERALS      7 BLANK NODES

    Subject Predicate Object
    1 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9 schema:about anzsrc-for:04
    2 anzsrc-for:0401
    3 schema:author N488767e500f84281879a5b7935aa1a02
    4 schema:citation sg:pub.10.1007/b100669
    5 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y
    6 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8
    7 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3
    8 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-008-9444-7
    9 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5
    10 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-012-0574-6
    11 sg:pub.10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y
    12 sg:pub.10.1038/nature03972
    13 sg:pub.10.1038/nature17145
    14 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2051
    15 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2450
    16 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2657
    17 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3168
    18 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3287
    19 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3418
    20 sg:pub.10.1038/ngeo2253
    21 sg:pub.10.1038/nrn2213
    22 sg:pub.10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3
    23 schema:datePublished 2018-11-10
    24 schema:datePublishedReg 2018-11-10
    25 schema:description As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change.
    26 schema:genre article
    27 schema:isAccessibleForFree true
    28 schema:isPartOf N8404a777084647d3b93e8612c68cd020
    29 Nd5b40cf5e5b44969852426a38e6b75c6
    30 sg:journal.1028211
    31 schema:keywords actionable information
    32 alternative
    33 alternative approach
    34 approach
    35 appropriate stress test
    36 aspects
    37 awareness
    38 basis
    39 boundaries
    40 change information
    41 change research
    42 changes
    43 climate change
    44 climate change information
    45 climate change research
    46 climate model simulations
    47 compound risk
    48 conventional approaches
    49 decision points
    50 deep uncertainty
    51 emphasis
    52 ensemble
    53 events
    54 face
    55 factors
    56 false precision
    57 future events
    58 human aspects
    59 information
    60 key aspects
    61 limitations
    62 manner
    63 model
    64 model simulations
    65 need
    66 particular vulnerability
    67 past events
    68 pathway
    69 people
    70 physical aspects
    71 physical basis
    72 plausibility
    73 plausible future events
    74 point
    75 powerful way
    76 precision
    77 probabilistic manner
    78 probability
    79 reasons
    80 regional model
    81 relevant factors
    82 representation
    83 representation of uncertainty
    84 requirements
    85 research
    86 risk
    87 risk awareness
    88 simulations
    89 storylines
    90 stress test
    91 surprise
    92 test
    93 typology
    94 uncertainty
    95 unfolding
    96 use
    97 vulnerability
    98 way
    99 schema:name Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
    100 schema:pagination 555-571
    101 schema:productId N0ab40d07e7714ad8aa2e35a442a625ae
    102 N298b28754664499bb16a470a5d497ccd
    103 Ndd7e758622904309a51f5be67ac2e141
    104 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1109805635
    105 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    106 schema:sdDatePublished 2022-10-01T06:43
    107 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
    108 schema:sdPublisher N35034e6fbaaf49b1aede882ad3bd576c
    109 schema:url https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    110 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
    111 sgo:sdDataset articles
    112 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
    113 N0ab40d07e7714ad8aa2e35a442a625ae schema:name pubmed_id
    114 schema:value 30880852
    115 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
    116 N21b75a7db691464f9277e214ee886e41 rdf:first sg:person.013310431232.01
    117 rdf:rest N2cac187c2a714b069958c09ed55aec71
    118 N298b28754664499bb16a470a5d497ccd schema:name dimensions_id
    119 schema:value pub.1109805635
    120 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
    121 N2cac187c2a714b069958c09ed55aec71 rdf:first sg:person.0701572400.41
    122 rdf:rest N5f0dff42895943f180bbaa29e88e923a
    123 N35034e6fbaaf49b1aede882ad3bd576c schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
    124 rdf:type schema:Organization
    125 N3c60c41118ea4574a9b221452d4a0e4e rdf:first sg:person.01172554715.26
    126 rdf:rest N77c3390d21d2485387284c3d90bc334a
    127 N3cc53e9f4f7443e9b601be1a69bcf56f rdf:first sg:person.01011420240.63
    128 rdf:rest Ne13b74cb1fc444698556cd0d5e4dd104
    129 N488767e500f84281879a5b7935aa1a02 rdf:first sg:person.01143236440.49
    130 rdf:rest N3cc53e9f4f7443e9b601be1a69bcf56f
    131 N4e8cf7d6c7094645b6b73926d0433605 rdf:first sg:person.015572774535.37
    132 rdf:rest N7d1e3593c5554c4f8e22157943569dcb
    133 N5f0dff42895943f180bbaa29e88e923a rdf:first sg:person.012130641366.60
    134 rdf:rest rdf:nil
    135 N6b18f7ef1ac44daca0b6bafee0d06d0e rdf:first sg:person.01025613710.20
    136 rdf:rest N3c60c41118ea4574a9b221452d4a0e4e
    137 N73f7cce03eb54215aa2bfd5d73810ff0 rdf:first sg:person.014022362466.79
    138 rdf:rest Neb386f6ecc6b432696d17414f4d64f60
    139 N77c3390d21d2485387284c3d90bc334a rdf:first sg:person.010707714545.84
    140 rdf:rest N21b75a7db691464f9277e214ee886e41
    141 N7d1e3593c5554c4f8e22157943569dcb rdf:first sg:person.012173370255.92
    142 rdf:rest Nffc482616e0b4c18a417463a16fa18d3
    143 N8404a777084647d3b93e8612c68cd020 schema:issueNumber 3-4
    144 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
    145 N8520b90680a6472788b13f4e724c1bd3 rdf:first sg:person.0751625753.34
    146 rdf:rest Nd6f934884ea54474ac74b0b7f34bc7a5
    147 Nc9ea0eb8405b445fb645169b2f193f3f rdf:first sg:person.015170627150.69
    148 rdf:rest N4e8cf7d6c7094645b6b73926d0433605
    149 Nd5b40cf5e5b44969852426a38e6b75c6 schema:volumeNumber 151
    150 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
    151 Nd6f934884ea54474ac74b0b7f34bc7a5 rdf:first sg:person.014163577225.15
    152 rdf:rest N73f7cce03eb54215aa2bfd5d73810ff0
    153 Ndd7e758622904309a51f5be67ac2e141 schema:name doi
    154 schema:value 10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    155 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
    156 Ndf184f19ea6e4c3fb328a724b78788b3 rdf:first sg:person.011777233423.60
    157 rdf:rest Nc9ea0eb8405b445fb645169b2f193f3f
    158 Ne13b74cb1fc444698556cd0d5e4dd104 rdf:first sg:person.011114575717.72
    159 rdf:rest N8520b90680a6472788b13f4e724c1bd3
    160 Neb386f6ecc6b432696d17414f4d64f60 rdf:first sg:person.01161741260.82
    161 rdf:rest Ndf184f19ea6e4c3fb328a724b78788b3
    162 Nf7cf2b0373e14526a5240ebe9cf534a8 rdf:first sg:person.01357463170.43
    163 rdf:rest N6b18f7ef1ac44daca0b6bafee0d06d0e
    164 Nffc482616e0b4c18a417463a16fa18d3 rdf:first sg:person.0751020513.48
    165 rdf:rest Nf7cf2b0373e14526a5240ebe9cf534a8
    166 anzsrc-for:04 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
    167 schema:name Earth Sciences
    168 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
    169 anzsrc-for:0401 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
    170 schema:name Atmospheric Sciences
    171 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
    172 sg:grant.2760753 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    173 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    174 sg:grant.2774281 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    175 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    176 sg:grant.2774307 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    177 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    178 sg:grant.2776007 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    179 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    180 sg:grant.3496553 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    181 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    182 sg:grant.3790900 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    183 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    184 sg:grant.6542407 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    185 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    186 sg:grant.7084330 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    187 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    188 sg:grant.7444150 http://pending.schema.org/fundedItem sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9
    189 rdf:type schema:MonetaryGrant
    190 sg:journal.1028211 schema:issn 0165-0009
    191 1573-1480
    192 schema:name Climatic Change
    193 schema:publisher Springer Nature
    194 rdf:type schema:Periodical
    195 sg:person.01011420240.63 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.4514.4
    196 schema:familyName Boyd
    197 schema:givenName Emily
    198 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01011420240.63
    199 rdf:type schema:Person
    200 sg:person.01025613710.20 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.4305.2
    201 schema:familyName Tett
    202 schema:givenName Simon F. B.
    203 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01025613710.20
    204 rdf:type schema:Person
    205 sg:person.010707714545.84 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.12380.38
    206 schema:familyName van den Hurk
    207 schema:givenName Bart J. J. M.
    208 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.010707714545.84
    209 rdf:type schema:Person
    210 sg:person.011114575717.72 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.13063.37
    211 schema:familyName Calel
    212 schema:givenName Raphael A.
    213 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.011114575717.72
    214 rdf:type schema:Person
    215 sg:person.01143236440.49 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.9435.b
    216 schema:familyName Shepherd
    217 schema:givenName Theodore G.
    218 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01143236440.49
    219 rdf:type schema:Person
    220 sg:person.01161741260.82 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.1006.7
    221 schema:familyName Fowler
    222 schema:givenName Hayley J.
    223 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01161741260.82
    224 rdf:type schema:Person
    225 sg:person.01172554715.26 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.57828.30
    226 schema:familyName Trenberth
    227 schema:givenName Kevin E.
    228 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01172554715.26
    229 rdf:type schema:Person
    230 sg:person.011777233423.60 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.7836.a
    231 schema:familyName James
    232 schema:givenName Rachel
    233 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.011777233423.60
    234 rdf:type schema:Person
    235 sg:person.012130641366.60 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.13063.37
    236 schema:familyName Zenghelis
    237 schema:givenName Dimitri A.
    238 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012130641366.60
    239 rdf:type schema:Person
    240 sg:person.012173370255.92 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.17100.37
    241 schema:familyName Senior
    242 schema:givenName Catherine A.
    243 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.012173370255.92
    244 rdf:type schema:Person
    245 sg:person.013310431232.01 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.10837.3d
    246 schema:familyName Watkins
    247 schema:givenName Nicholas W.
    248 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.013310431232.01
    249 rdf:type schema:Person
    250 sg:person.01357463170.43 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.7372.1
    251 schema:familyName Stainforth
    252 schema:givenName David A.
    253 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01357463170.43
    254 rdf:type schema:Person
    255 sg:person.014022362466.79 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:None
    256 schema:familyName Dima-West
    257 schema:givenName Ioana M.
    258 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.014022362466.79
    259 rdf:type schema:Person
    260 sg:person.014163577225.15 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.9909.9
    261 schema:familyName Dessai
    262 schema:givenName Suraje
    263 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.014163577225.15
    264 rdf:type schema:Person
    265 sg:person.015170627150.69 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.5110.5
    266 schema:familyName Maraun
    267 schema:givenName Douglas
    268 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015170627150.69
    269 rdf:type schema:Person
    270 sg:person.015572774535.37 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.5734.5
    271 schema:familyName Martius
    272 schema:givenName Olivia
    273 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015572774535.37
    274 rdf:type schema:Person
    275 sg:person.0701572400.41 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.6571.5
    276 schema:familyName Wilby
    277 schema:givenName Robert L.
    278 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0701572400.41
    279 rdf:type schema:Person
    280 sg:person.0751020513.48 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.21729.3f
    281 schema:familyName Sobel
    282 schema:givenName Adam H.
    283 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0751020513.48
    284 rdf:type schema:Person
    285 sg:person.0751625753.34 schema:affiliation grid-institutes:grid.189504.1
    286 schema:familyName Chapman
    287 schema:givenName Sandra C.
    288 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0751625753.34
    289 rdf:type schema:Person
    290 sg:pub.10.1007/b100669 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1014380157
    291 https://doi.org/10.1007/b100669
    292 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    293 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1043453583
    294 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1707-y
    295 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    296 sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1020496575
    297 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2806-8
    298 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    299 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1008002140
    300 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9060-3
    301 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    302 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-008-9444-7 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030474512
    303 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9444-7
    304 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    305 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1022976281
    306 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5
    307 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    308 sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-012-0574-6 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1048697107
    309 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0574-6
    310 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    311 sg:pub.10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1017429140
    312 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y
    313 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    314 sg:pub.10.1038/nature03972 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030525946
    315 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972
    316 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    317 sg:pub.10.1038/nature17145 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1016136084
    318 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17145
    319 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    320 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2051 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007909771
    321 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2051
    322 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    323 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2450 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045165989
    324 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2450
    325 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    326 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate2657 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021001021
    327 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
    328 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    329 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3168 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1045597218
    330 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3168
    331 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    332 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3287 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1085411043
    333 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287
    334 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    335 sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate3418 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1092504071
    336 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3418
    337 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    338 sg:pub.10.1038/ngeo2253 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1037617723
    339 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253
    340 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    341 sg:pub.10.1038/nrn2213 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007979902
    342 https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn2213
    343 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    344 sg:pub.10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1103956857
    345 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3
    346 rdf:type schema:CreativeWork
    347 grid-institutes:None schema:alternateName Willis Re, EC3M 7DQ, London, UK
    348 schema:name Willis Re, EC3M 7DQ, London, UK
    349 rdf:type schema:Organization
    350 grid-institutes:grid.1006.7 schema:alternateName School of Engineering, Newcastle University, NE1 7RU, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
    351 schema:name School of Engineering, Newcastle University, NE1 7RU, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
    352 rdf:type schema:Organization
    353 grid-institutes:grid.10837.3d schema:alternateName Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
    354 schema:name Center for Space Physics, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA
    355 Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK
    356 Faculty of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
    357 London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK
    358 rdf:type schema:Organization
    359 grid-institutes:grid.12380.38 schema:alternateName Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands
    360 schema:name Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, Netherlands
    361 Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), 3730 AE, De Bilt, Netherlands
    362 rdf:type schema:Organization
    363 grid-institutes:grid.13063.37 schema:alternateName London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK
    364 schema:name London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK
    365 McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, 20057, Washington, DC, USA
    366 rdf:type schema:Organization
    367 grid-institutes:grid.17100.37 schema:alternateName Met Office, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK
    368 schema:name Met Office, EX1 3PB, Exeter, UK
    369 rdf:type schema:Organization
    370 grid-institutes:grid.189504.1 schema:alternateName Center for Space Physics, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA
    371 schema:name Center for Space Physics, Department of Astronomy, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA
    372 Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK
    373 rdf:type schema:Organization
    374 grid-institutes:grid.21729.3f schema:alternateName Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 10027, New York, NY, USA
    375 schema:name Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, 10027, New York, NY, USA
    376 rdf:type schema:Organization
    377 grid-institutes:grid.4305.2 schema:alternateName School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, Edinburgh, UK
    378 schema:name School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, Edinburgh, UK
    379 rdf:type schema:Organization
    380 grid-institutes:grid.4514.4 schema:alternateName Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, 221 00, Lund, Sweden
    381 schema:name Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, 221 00, Lund, Sweden
    382 rdf:type schema:Organization
    383 grid-institutes:grid.5110.5 schema:alternateName Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010, Graz, Austria
    384 schema:name Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010, Graz, Austria
    385 rdf:type schema:Organization
    386 grid-institutes:grid.5734.5 schema:alternateName Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland
    387 schema:name Institute of Geography, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland
    388 rdf:type schema:Organization
    389 grid-institutes:grid.57828.30 schema:alternateName National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80307, Boulder, CO, USA
    390 schema:name National Center for Atmospheric Research, 80307, Boulder, CO, USA
    391 rdf:type schema:Organization
    392 grid-institutes:grid.6571.5 schema:alternateName Department of Geography, Loughborough University, LE11 3TU, Loughborough, UK
    393 schema:name Department of Geography, Loughborough University, LE11 3TU, Loughborough, UK
    394 rdf:type schema:Organization
    395 grid-institutes:grid.7372.1 schema:alternateName Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK
    396 schema:name Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK
    397 London School of Economics, WC2A 2AE, London, UK
    398 rdf:type schema:Organization
    399 grid-institutes:grid.7836.a schema:alternateName Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7701, Rondebosch, South Africa
    400 schema:name Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, 7701, Rondebosch, South Africa
    401 Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY, Oxford, UK
    402 rdf:type schema:Organization
    403 grid-institutes:grid.9435.b schema:alternateName Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK
    404 schema:name Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, UK
    405 rdf:type schema:Organization
    406 grid-institutes:grid.9909.9 schema:alternateName Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, Leeds, UK
    407 schema:name Sustainability Research Institute and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT, Leeds, UK
    408 rdf:type schema:Organization
     




    Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


    ...