“Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK” View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2015-01

AUTHORS

A. E. Harding, M. Rivington, M. J. Mineter, S. F. B. Tett

ABSTRACT

Five stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change were analysed for the UK, over past (1961–1990) and future (2061–2090) periods. Accumulated Frosts, Dry Days, Growing Season Length, Plant Heat Stress and Start of Field Operations were calculated from the E-Obs (European Observational) and HadRM3 (Hadley Regional Climate Model) PPE (perturbed physics ensemble) data sets. Indices were compared directly and examined for current and future uncertainty. Biases are quantified in terms of ensemble member climate sensitivity and regional aggregation. Maps of spatial change then provide an appropriate metric for end-users both in terms of their requirements and statistical robustness. A future UK is described with fewer frosts, fewer years with a large number of frosts, an earlier start to field operations (e.g., tillage), fewer occurrences of sporadic rainfall, more instances of high temperatures (in both the mean and upper range), and a much longer growing season. More... »

PAGES

113-126

Journal

TITLE

Climatic Change

ISSUE

1-2

VOLUME

128

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-014-1296-8

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1296-8

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1042861042


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