The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2014-11-11

AUTHORS

N. W. Arnell, S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. A. Lowe, R. J. Nicholls, T. J. Osborn, T. M. Osborne, G. A. Rose, P. Smith, T. R. Wheeler, P. Zelazowski

ABSTRACT

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios. More... »

PAGES

457-474

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1281-2

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1043324902


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56 ensemble mean
57 environment
58 environment sector
59 example
60 extra people
61 flooding
62 floods
63 global assessment
64 global climate models
65 global impact
66 globe
67 harmonised set
68 heating demand
69 high cooling demand
70 impact
71 impact model
72 indicators
73 indicators of impact
74 levels
75 means
76 model
77 model patterns
78 model scenarios
79 most regions
80 multi-sectoral assessment
81 multiple dimensions
82 narrative assessment
83 narratives
84 natural environment
85 paper
86 patterns
87 people
88 potential impact
89 productivity
90 proportional impact
91 range
92 region
93 regional impacts
94 residential energy demand
95 resource stress
96 resources
97 river flooding
98 same climate
99 scenarios
100 sea level
101 sector
102 set
103 socio-economic scenarios
104 stress
105 temperature
106 uncertainty
107 variability
108 water resources
109 water resources stress
110 water stress
111 years
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