Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle Open Access: True
2016-02
AUTHORSN. W. Arnell, S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, J. Hinkel, C. Huntingford, B. Lloyd-Hughes, J. A. Lowe, T. Osborn, R. J. Nicholls, P. Zelazowski
ABSTRACTAlthough there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator. More... »
PAGES475-487
http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7
DIMENSIONShttps://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1009542838
JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.
TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT
[
{
"@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json",
"about": [
{
"id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/1402",
"inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/",
"name": "Applied Economics",
"type": "DefinedTerm"
},
{
"id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/14",
"inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/",
"name": "Economics",
"type": "DefinedTerm"
}
],
"author": [
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "University of Reading",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.9435.b",
"name": [
"Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Arnell",
"givenName": "N. W.",
"id": "sg:person.0743535320.29",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0743535320.29"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "University of Southampton",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.5491.9",
"name": [
"Faculty of Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Brown",
"givenName": "S.",
"id": "sg:person.0762726503.41",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.0762726503.41"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "University of Nottingham",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4563.4",
"name": [
"School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Gosling",
"givenName": "S. N.",
"id": "sg:person.01257312051.24",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01257312051.24"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Global Climate Forum",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.424922.b",
"name": [
"Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Hinkel",
"givenName": "J.",
"id": "sg:person.016162623273.57",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.016162623273.57"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Centre for Ecology and Hydrology",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.494924.6",
"name": [
"Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Huntingford",
"givenName": "C.",
"id": "sg:person.01265557306.26",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01265557306.26"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "University of Reading",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.9435.b",
"name": [
"Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading, Reading, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Lloyd-Hughes",
"givenName": "B.",
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "Met Office",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.17100.37",
"name": [
"Department of Meteorology, Met Office Hadley Centre, University of Reading, Exeter, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Lowe",
"givenName": "J. A.",
"id": "sg:person.011066117233.90",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.011066117233.90"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "University of East Anglia",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.8273.e",
"name": [
"Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Osborn",
"givenName": "T.",
"id": "sg:person.07437575341.51",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.07437575341.51"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "University of Southampton",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.5491.9",
"name": [
"Faculty of Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Nicholls",
"givenName": "R. J.",
"id": "sg:person.01114771330.10",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.01114771330.10"
],
"type": "Person"
},
{
"affiliation": {
"alternateName": "University of Oxford",
"id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.4991.5",
"name": [
"Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK"
],
"type": "Organization"
},
"familyName": "Zelazowski",
"givenName": "P.",
"id": "sg:person.015764545623.89",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/discover/publication?and_facet_researcher=ur.015764545623.89"
],
"type": "Person"
}
],
"citation": [
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1001335082",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1001335082",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0853-x"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate1716",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1002144786",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1007803036",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1009520846"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-88-9-1383",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1010559256"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-9883(02)00010-5",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1012307777"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s00382-012-1571-1",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1012359911",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1571-1"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1038/nclimate1793",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1015666115",
"https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1793"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.2112/06-0725.1",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1016405988"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0959-3780(00)00040-6",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1018809949"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2006.9685619",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1018871435"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601798103",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1021354878"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-006-9159-6",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1023934332",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9159-6"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-006-9159-6",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1023934332",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9159-6"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.010",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1025825535"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-006-9172-9",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1026244696",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9172-9"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1027743105"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1466-822x.2002.00294.x",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1029926135"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3361.1",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1030337444"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035010484"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1023/a:1026035305597",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1035832790",
"https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1026035305597"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gb002952",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1037338284"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1037733400",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1037733400",
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1038108572"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.03.002",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1039018742"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812355106",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1044357996"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222471110",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1046278728"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "sg:pub.10.1023/a:1021340513936",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1047046942",
"https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1021340513936"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/1/014012",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1050512211"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/4/1/014012",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1050512211"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7727",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1051418483"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1052721753"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
},
{
"id": "https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-679-2010",
"sameAs": [
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1072670003"
],
"type": "CreativeWork"
}
],
"datePublished": "2016-02",
"datePublishedReg": "2016-02-01",
"description": "Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.",
"genre": "research_article",
"id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7",
"inLanguage": [
"en"
],
"isAccessibleForFree": true,
"isFundedItemOf": [
{
"id": "sg:grant.2774290",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2773753",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2775829",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2759969",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2751833",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2777611",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2755224",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2782586",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2784157",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2751981",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2771027",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2766728",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
},
{
"id": "sg:grant.2764884",
"type": "MonetaryGrant"
}
],
"isPartOf": [
{
"id": "sg:journal.1028211",
"issn": [
"0165-0009",
"1573-1480"
],
"name": "Climatic Change",
"type": "Periodical"
},
{
"issueNumber": "3",
"type": "PublicationIssue"
},
{
"type": "PublicationVolume",
"volumeNumber": "134"
}
],
"name": "Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact",
"pagination": "475-487",
"productId": [
{
"name": "readcube_id",
"type": "PropertyValue",
"value": [
"2d755edb5e177a264c6991a6ac39ed3299ddf4e0df9aebb72661f04447a317f0"
]
},
{
"name": "doi",
"type": "PropertyValue",
"value": [
"10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7"
]
},
{
"name": "dimensions_id",
"type": "PropertyValue",
"value": [
"pub.1009542838"
]
}
],
"sameAs": [
"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7",
"https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1009542838"
],
"sdDataset": "articles",
"sdDatePublished": "2019-04-11T13:06",
"sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/",
"sdPublisher": {
"name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project",
"type": "Organization"
},
"sdSource": "s3://com-uberresearch-data-dimensions-target-20181106-alternative/cleanup/v134/2549eaecd7973599484d7c17b260dba0a4ecb94b/merge/v9/a6c9fde33151104705d4d7ff012ea9563521a3ce/jats-lookup/v90/0000000367_0000000367/records_88218_00000000.jsonl",
"type": "ScholarlyArticle",
"url": "http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7"
}
]Download the RDF metadata as: json-ld nt turtle xml License info
JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.
curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7'
N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.
curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7'
Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.
curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7'
RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.
curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-013-1034-7'
This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.
273 TRIPLES
21 PREDICATES
58 URIs
19 LITERALS
7 BLANK NODES