The representative concentration pathways: an overview View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2011-08-05

AUTHORS

Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jae Edmonds, Mikiko Kainuma, Keywan Riahi, Allison Thomson, Kathy Hibbard, George C. Hurtt, Tom Kram, Volker Krey, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Toshihiko Masui, Malte Meinshausen, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Steven J. Smith, Steven K. Rose

ABSTRACT

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis. More... »

PAGES

5

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2011-08-13. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2007-02-13. Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2011-08-09. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300 in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2010-12-15. The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2011-08-05. RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2010-02. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment in NATURE
  • 2011-08-09. Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980–2010 period in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2011-08-09. Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2011-08-05. Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2006-09. Emissions scenarios database and regional mitigation analysis: a review of post-TAR mitigation scenarios in ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND POLICY STUDIES
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  • 2011-07-29. RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • Identifiers

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    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

    DIMENSIONS

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    18 schema:description This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.
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