Climate targets under uncertainty: challenges and remedies View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2010-11-26

AUTHORS

Matthias G. W. Schmidt, Alexander Lorenz, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler

ABSTRACT

We start from the observation that climate targets under uncertainty should be interpreted as safety constraints on the probability of crossing a certain threshold, such as 2°C global warming. We then highlight, by ways of a simple example, that cost-effectiveness analysis for such probabilistic targets leads to major conceptual problems if learning about uncertainty is taken into account and the target is fixed. Current target proposals presumably imply that targets should be revised in the light of new information. Taking this into account amounts to formalizing how targets should be chosen, a question that was avoided by cost-effectiveness analysis. One way is to perform a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis including some kind of monetary damage function. We propose multi-criteria decision analysis including a target-based risk metric as an alternative that is more explicite in its assumptions and more closely based on given targets. More... »

PAGES

783-791

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10584-010-9985-4

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9985-4

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1029373037


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