Outlook on UK-EU Brexit negotiations and possible economic risks View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2019-03

AUTHORS

Raj Badiani

ABSTRACT

The UK parliament on 29 January endorsed by 317 to 301 votes a government-backed amendment proposing to renegotiate the Brexit deal with the European Union, specifically demanding major changes to the so-called backstop on future border management between the UK region of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. EU negotiators, as well as leaders from the remaining 27 EU member states, have repeatedly stated that they reject such a move. While still failing to approve viable alternative routes, the UK parliament also confirmed in a nonbinding vote with a majority of 318 to 310 that it is opposed to leaving the EU without a deal. The easiest route is for the UK to secure an orderly Brexit on 29 March would require major EU concessions to the backstop, such as agreeing to a time limit or providing a unilateral exit clause for the UK. But, the EU continues to rule out a renegotiation, suggesting May could struggle to win some concessions to win over support from hardline Brexiteers. Should the EC refuse to budge on the backstop agreement, parliament could demand a legally binding vote to remove a “no deal” option from the table, increasing the likelihood of the UK edging closer to a softer Brexit instead. This could entail the establishment of a permanent UK-EU customs union, which could attract sufficient number of votes from the opposition as well as an array of pro-EU MPs from the governing Conservative Party. However, May has so far refrained from offering such an option as it would significantly increase the risk of splitting her party. Without either EU concessions or a cross-party alliance supporting a softer Brexit, the risk of exiting without a deal on 29 March increases. At this point in time (4 February), IHS Markit's assessment that the risk of a “no-deal” Brexit is more elevated, and sits uncomfortably around a 25–30% probability range. Even before we examine the impact of a “no deal” outcome on the UK economy, the continued Brexit uncertainty represents a significant hit on business sentiment, with many firms bemoaning the continued lack of clarity and expressing deep shock that the no-deal option remains on the table. Business groups continue to highlight the lack of contingency planning for a disorderly Brexit. Specifically, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Colin Stanbridge reports, “75 per cent of London businesses that we surveyed still haven't made any provisions in preparation for Brexit. Furthermore, the survey also reveals that 86% of businesses in London employing under 10 people have made no preparations at all due to lack of resources and time.” More encouragingly, some have welcomed the fact that parliament has indicated that it is against leaving the EU without a deal, although it is not legally binding. Indeed, Huw Evans, the director-general of the Association of British Insurers, noted that it was “encouraging to see Parliament saying it won't support a no-deal outcome”. Overall, parliament's indecisive vote on the Brexit path signifies that there has been no progress towards how the UK will leave the EU, with many UK firms angry that the point of departure is getting ever close. They highlight that the continued uncertainty is damaging business sentiment and economic activity. Indeed, the latest survey data suggest that the UK economy was close to stagnation in the final month of 2018 and point to limited growth in the first half of 2019. At this stage, we continue to advocate a cautious near-term growth outlook, with the UK economy set to expand by 1.1% (the January consensus is 1.4%) in 2019 and 1.3% (consensus at 1.6%) in 2020 from an estimated 1.3% gain in 2018. More... »

PAGES

5-16

Identifiers

URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112230580


Indexing Status Check whether this publication has been indexed by Scopus and Web Of Science using the SN Indexing Status Tool
Incoming Citations Browse incoming citations for this publication using opencitations.net

JSON-LD is the canonical representation for SciGraph data.

TIP: You can open this SciGraph record using an external JSON-LD service: JSON-LD Playground Google SDTT

[
  {
    "@context": "https://springernature.github.io/scigraph/jsonld/sgcontext.json", 
    "about": [
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/1503", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Business and Management", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }, 
      {
        "id": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/15", 
        "inDefinedTermSet": "http://purl.org/au-research/vocabulary/anzsrc-for/2008/", 
        "name": "Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services", 
        "type": "DefinedTerm"
      }
    ], 
    "author": [
      {
        "affiliation": {
          "alternateName": "International Headache Society", 
          "id": "https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.479885.f", 
          "name": [
            "IHS Markit, London, UK"
          ], 
          "type": "Organization"
        }, 
        "familyName": "Badiani", 
        "givenName": "Raj", 
        "type": "Person"
      }
    ], 
    "datePublished": "2019-03", 
    "datePublishedReg": "2019-03-01", 
    "description": "The UK parliament on 29 January endorsed by 317 to 301 votes a government-backed amendment proposing to renegotiate the Brexit deal with the European Union, specifically demanding major changes to the so-called backstop on future border management between the UK region of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. EU negotiators, as well as leaders from the remaining 27 EU member states, have repeatedly stated that they reject such a move. While still failing to approve viable alternative routes, the UK parliament also confirmed in a nonbinding vote with a majority of 318 to 310 that it is opposed to leaving the EU without a deal. The easiest route is for the UK to secure an orderly Brexit on 29 March would require major EU concessions to the backstop, such as agreeing to a time limit or providing a unilateral exit clause for the UK. But, the EU continues to rule out a renegotiation, suggesting May could struggle to win some concessions to win over support from hardline Brexiteers. Should the EC refuse to budge on the backstop agreement, parliament could demand a legally binding vote to remove a \u201cno deal\u201d option from the table, increasing the likelihood of the UK edging closer to a softer Brexit instead. This could entail the establishment of a permanent UK-EU customs union, which could attract sufficient number of votes from the opposition as well as an array of pro-EU MPs from the governing Conservative Party. However, May has so far refrained from offering such an option as it would significantly increase the risk of splitting her party. Without either EU concessions or a cross-party alliance supporting a softer Brexit, the risk of exiting without a deal on 29 March increases. At this point in time (4 February), IHS Markit's assessment that the risk of a \u201cno-deal\u201d Brexit is more elevated, and sits uncomfortably around a 25\u201330% probability range. Even before we examine the impact of a \u201cno deal\u201d outcome on the UK economy, the continued Brexit uncertainty represents a significant hit on business sentiment, with many firms bemoaning the continued lack of clarity and expressing deep shock that the no-deal option remains on the table. Business groups continue to highlight the lack of contingency planning for a disorderly Brexit. Specifically, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Colin Stanbridge reports, \u201c75 per cent of London businesses that we surveyed still haven't made any provisions in preparation for Brexit. Furthermore, the survey also reveals that 86% of businesses in London employing under 10 people have made no preparations at all due to lack of resources and time.\u201d More encouragingly, some have welcomed the fact that parliament has indicated that it is against leaving the EU without a deal, although it is not legally binding. Indeed, Huw Evans, the director-general of the Association of British Insurers, noted that it was \u201cencouraging to see Parliament saying it won't support a no-deal outcome\u201d. Overall, parliament's indecisive vote on the Brexit path signifies that there has been no progress towards how the UK will leave the EU, with many UK firms angry that the point of departure is getting ever close. They highlight that the continued uncertainty is damaging business sentiment and economic activity. Indeed, the latest survey data suggest that the UK economy was close to stagnation in the final month of 2018 and point to limited growth in the first half of 2019. At this stage, we continue to advocate a cautious near-term growth outlook, with the UK economy set to expand by 1.1% (the January consensus is 1.4%) in 2019 and 1.3% (consensus at 1.6%) in 2020 from an estimated 1.3% gain in 2018.", 
    "genre": "research_article", 
    "id": "sg:pub.10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w", 
    "inLanguage": [
      "en"
    ], 
    "isAccessibleForFree": false, 
    "isPartOf": [
      {
        "id": "sg:journal.1136387", 
        "issn": [
          "1612-4804", 
          "1612-4812"
        ], 
        "name": "International Economics and Economic Policy", 
        "type": "Periodical"
      }, 
      {
        "issueNumber": "1", 
        "type": "PublicationIssue"
      }, 
      {
        "type": "PublicationVolume", 
        "volumeNumber": "16"
      }
    ], 
    "name": "Outlook on UK-EU Brexit negotiations and possible economic risks", 
    "pagination": "5-16", 
    "productId": [
      {
        "name": "readcube_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "f1ea990b73f55a085fe03a898147a89fff4c0ce0c0ac5422b35c5dd5f0490e64"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "doi", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w"
        ]
      }, 
      {
        "name": "dimensions_id", 
        "type": "PropertyValue", 
        "value": [
          "pub.1112230580"
        ]
      }
    ], 
    "sameAs": [
      "https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w", 
      "https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112230580"
    ], 
    "sdDataset": "articles", 
    "sdDatePublished": "2019-04-11T12:06", 
    "sdLicense": "https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/", 
    "sdPublisher": {
      "name": "Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project", 
      "type": "Organization"
    }, 
    "sdSource": "s3://com-uberresearch-data-dimensions-target-20181106-alternative/cleanup/v134/2549eaecd7973599484d7c17b260dba0a4ecb94b/merge/v9/a6c9fde33151104705d4d7ff012ea9563521a3ce/jats-lookup/v90/0000000360_0000000360/records_118335_00000001.jsonl", 
    "type": "ScholarlyArticle", 
    "url": "https://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs10368-018-00427-w"
  }
]
 

Download the RDF metadata as:  json-ld nt turtle xml License info

HOW TO GET THIS DATA PROGRAMMATICALLY:

JSON-LD is a popular format for linked data which is fully compatible with JSON.

curl -H 'Accept: application/ld+json' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w'

N-Triples is a line-based linked data format ideal for batch operations.

curl -H 'Accept: application/n-triples' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w'

Turtle is a human-readable linked data format.

curl -H 'Accept: text/turtle' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w'

RDF/XML is a standard XML format for linked data.

curl -H 'Accept: application/rdf+xml' 'https://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w'


 

This table displays all metadata directly associated to this object as RDF triples.

60 TRIPLES      20 PREDICATES      27 URIs      19 LITERALS      7 BLANK NODES

Subject Predicate Object
1 sg:pub.10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w schema:about anzsrc-for:15
2 anzsrc-for:1503
3 schema:author N1188c74efc894f4884d23e576f191b6b
4 schema:datePublished 2019-03
5 schema:datePublishedReg 2019-03-01
6 schema:description The UK parliament on 29 January endorsed by 317 to 301 votes a government-backed amendment proposing to renegotiate the Brexit deal with the European Union, specifically demanding major changes to the so-called backstop on future border management between the UK region of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. EU negotiators, as well as leaders from the remaining 27 EU member states, have repeatedly stated that they reject such a move. While still failing to approve viable alternative routes, the UK parliament also confirmed in a nonbinding vote with a majority of 318 to 310 that it is opposed to leaving the EU without a deal. The easiest route is for the UK to secure an orderly Brexit on 29 March would require major EU concessions to the backstop, such as agreeing to a time limit or providing a unilateral exit clause for the UK. But, the EU continues to rule out a renegotiation, suggesting May could struggle to win some concessions to win over support from hardline Brexiteers. Should the EC refuse to budge on the backstop agreement, parliament could demand a legally binding vote to remove a “no deal” option from the table, increasing the likelihood of the UK edging closer to a softer Brexit instead. This could entail the establishment of a permanent UK-EU customs union, which could attract sufficient number of votes from the opposition as well as an array of pro-EU MPs from the governing Conservative Party. However, May has so far refrained from offering such an option as it would significantly increase the risk of splitting her party. Without either EU concessions or a cross-party alliance supporting a softer Brexit, the risk of exiting without a deal on 29 March increases. At this point in time (4 February), IHS Markit's assessment that the risk of a “no-deal” Brexit is more elevated, and sits uncomfortably around a 25–30% probability range. Even before we examine the impact of a “no deal” outcome on the UK economy, the continued Brexit uncertainty represents a significant hit on business sentiment, with many firms bemoaning the continued lack of clarity and expressing deep shock that the no-deal option remains on the table. Business groups continue to highlight the lack of contingency planning for a disorderly Brexit. Specifically, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive Colin Stanbridge reports, “75 per cent of London businesses that we surveyed still haven't made any provisions in preparation for Brexit. Furthermore, the survey also reveals that 86% of businesses in London employing under 10 people have made no preparations at all due to lack of resources and time.” More encouragingly, some have welcomed the fact that parliament has indicated that it is against leaving the EU without a deal, although it is not legally binding. Indeed, Huw Evans, the director-general of the Association of British Insurers, noted that it was “encouraging to see Parliament saying it won't support a no-deal outcome”. Overall, parliament's indecisive vote on the Brexit path signifies that there has been no progress towards how the UK will leave the EU, with many UK firms angry that the point of departure is getting ever close. They highlight that the continued uncertainty is damaging business sentiment and economic activity. Indeed, the latest survey data suggest that the UK economy was close to stagnation in the final month of 2018 and point to limited growth in the first half of 2019. At this stage, we continue to advocate a cautious near-term growth outlook, with the UK economy set to expand by 1.1% (the January consensus is 1.4%) in 2019 and 1.3% (consensus at 1.6%) in 2020 from an estimated 1.3% gain in 2018.
7 schema:genre research_article
8 schema:inLanguage en
9 schema:isAccessibleForFree false
10 schema:isPartOf N14d927a134d243d39faff00856e9e192
11 Nc4305c33c8344ccb88878ec39cdcbb55
12 sg:journal.1136387
13 schema:name Outlook on UK-EU Brexit negotiations and possible economic risks
14 schema:pagination 5-16
15 schema:productId N221e34640f164938969a1bd51864a9d9
16 N4a0fba12bf25439cb512eac5ca2ce7fd
17 N6e9d1742122d404492cddcbc6184c5cf
18 schema:sameAs https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1112230580
19 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w
20 schema:sdDatePublished 2019-04-11T12:06
21 schema:sdLicense https://scigraph.springernature.com/explorer/license/
22 schema:sdPublisher N5523b5467fd0422c8f0cc51ec8e9864c
23 schema:url https://link.springer.com/10.1007%2Fs10368-018-00427-w
24 sgo:license sg:explorer/license/
25 sgo:sdDataset articles
26 rdf:type schema:ScholarlyArticle
27 N1188c74efc894f4884d23e576f191b6b rdf:first N8179a59a0b6c4aa0b518634dae474cc3
28 rdf:rest rdf:nil
29 N14d927a134d243d39faff00856e9e192 schema:volumeNumber 16
30 rdf:type schema:PublicationVolume
31 N221e34640f164938969a1bd51864a9d9 schema:name doi
32 schema:value 10.1007/s10368-018-00427-w
33 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
34 N4a0fba12bf25439cb512eac5ca2ce7fd schema:name dimensions_id
35 schema:value pub.1112230580
36 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
37 N5523b5467fd0422c8f0cc51ec8e9864c schema:name Springer Nature - SN SciGraph project
38 rdf:type schema:Organization
39 N6e9d1742122d404492cddcbc6184c5cf schema:name readcube_id
40 schema:value f1ea990b73f55a085fe03a898147a89fff4c0ce0c0ac5422b35c5dd5f0490e64
41 rdf:type schema:PropertyValue
42 N8179a59a0b6c4aa0b518634dae474cc3 schema:affiliation https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.479885.f
43 schema:familyName Badiani
44 schema:givenName Raj
45 rdf:type schema:Person
46 Nc4305c33c8344ccb88878ec39cdcbb55 schema:issueNumber 1
47 rdf:type schema:PublicationIssue
48 anzsrc-for:15 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
49 schema:name Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
50 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
51 anzsrc-for:1503 schema:inDefinedTermSet anzsrc-for:
52 schema:name Business and Management
53 rdf:type schema:DefinedTerm
54 sg:journal.1136387 schema:issn 1612-4804
55 1612-4812
56 schema:name International Economics and Economic Policy
57 rdf:type schema:Periodical
58 https://www.grid.ac/institutes/grid.479885.f schema:alternateName International Headache Society
59 schema:name IHS Markit, London, UK
60 rdf:type schema:Organization
 




Preview window. Press ESC to close (or click here)


...