Output correlations in probabilistic models with multiple alternatives View Full Text


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Article Info

DATE

2015-03

AUTHORS

Klemen Naveršnik

ABSTRACT

A comprehensive cost-effectiveness decision model will often go beyond a one-to-one comparison and will include a number of competing alternatives. Only a simultaneous assessment of all relevant treatment alternatives avoids comparing average cost-effectiveness ratios and allows a truly incremental analysis. Two issues arise if the analysis is probabilistic, namely, the occurrence of output correlations and difficulty in presenting the results. I have examined the role of output correlations using a screening model with eight alternatives and have shown that specifically cost-cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY)-QALY correlations between alternatives have a major impact on decision uncertainty, as measured by the probability of the cost-effectiveness and expected value of perfect information. In particular, the latter strongly depends on between-alternative output correlations. This analysis shows that both the expected value of perfect information plots and acceptability curves/frontiers are sensitive to output correlations and thus appropriate for presentation of multiple alternatives. To avoid confusing statistical significance and economic importance I propose that acceptability curves be augmented by incremental net-benefit density plots at a given willingness to pay threshold. More... »

PAGES

133-139

References to SciGraph publications

  • 2011-03. Sample Size and Power for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (Part 1) in PHARMACOECONOMICS
  • 2004-08. Stochastic Dominance and Medical Decision Making in HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
  • Identifiers

    URI

    http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s10198-013-0558-0

    DOI

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10198-013-0558-0

    DIMENSIONS

    https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1003749878

    PUBMED

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24390145


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