Long-term natural history of liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: an analysis using the Markov chain ... View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle     


Article Info

DATE

2018-11

AUTHORS

Toshifumi Tada, Takashi Kumada, Hidenori Toyoda, Masayuki Ohisa, Tomoyuki Akita, Junko Tanaka

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and the long-term natural history of liver disease has not been sufficiently investigated. METHODS: A total of 408 [4352 person-year (PY) units] patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) without antiviral therapy were enrolled. The study patients were divided into three groups, as follows: Group A (2666 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age < 40; Group B (413 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age ≥ 40; Group C (1273 PY units), persistently HBeAg positive. Yearly transition probabilities from each liver state [chronic HBV infection, chronic hepatitis B, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity] were calculated using the Markov chain model. RESULTS: In the analysis of 1 year liver disease state transition probabilities, the liver states remained almost the same in Group A. In Groups B and C, each liver state tended to progress to a worse state. Assuming a chronic hepatitis B state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 years, the chronic hepatitis B state accounted for approximately 60% of males aged ≥ 50 and approximately 40% of females aged ≥ 60 in Group A, and the HBsAg-negative state accounted for approximately 30-40% of males and females aged ≥ 60. In Groups B and C, the probabilities of patients with cirrhosis and HCC gradually increased with age. CONCLUSIONS: Not only patients with persistent HBeAg positive, but also patients with delayed HBeAg seroconversion showed poor prognosis of liver-related natural history. More... »

PAGES

1196-1205

References to SciGraph publications

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URI

http://scigraph.springernature.com/pub.10.1007/s00535-018-1467-x

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00535-018-1467-x

DIMENSIONS

https://app.dimensions.ai/details/publication/pub.1103451606

PUBMED

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29675604


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