Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time-evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave View Full Text


Ontology type: schema:ScholarlyArticle      Open Access: True


Article Info

DATE

2019-05-24

AUTHORS

Luke J. Harrington, Friederike E. L. Otto, Tim Cowan, Gabriele C. Hegerl

ABSTRACT

The science of extreme event attribution has rapidly expanded in recent years, with numerous studies dedicated to determining whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change has increased the likelihood of specific extreme weather events occurring. However, the majority of such studies have focussed on extreme events which have occurred in the recent past (usually within the past 10 years) while minimal research efforts have considered the multitude of high-impact extreme climatic events which occurred throughout the instrumental record. This study proposes a framework to quantify how the likelihood of witnessing meteorological characteristics reminiscent of the 1947 Central European heatwave have evolved over time. We specifically examine circulation analogues as a tool to understand the relative role of dynamical and thermodynamic contributions to changes in the probability of experiencing similar heatwave events. Using a reanalysis-based dataset, our results show changes in the frequency of 1947-like extreme heat throughout the twentieth century to be highly sensitive to methodological choices, particularly in the context of disaggregating dynamic and thermodynamic changes in the risk of extreme heat. Evidence also suggests clear decadal variability in the occurrence of circulation patterns conducive to the 1947 heatwaves. Finally, we discuss how to appropriately consider the time-evolution of attribution statements, as well as the broader limitations of employing circulation analogues as a method to interrogate the dynamical contribution to the probability ratio of an extreme event. More... »

PAGES

2229-2247

References to SciGraph publications

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  • 2017-03-24. European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2011-10-15. Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: a multi-model analysis from CMIP3 in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2018-07-20. Blocking and its Response to Climate Change in CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS
  • 2010-05-16. Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2016-03-21. DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2017-01-31. Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2017-04-12. Role of circulation in European heatwaves using flow analogues in CLIMATE DYNAMICS
  • 2016-08-25. The attribution question in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2018-08-02. Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales—a case study of four different types of events in CLIMATIC CHANGE
  • 2017-09-25. Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature in SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
  • 2015-06-22. Attribution of climate extreme events in NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2015-07-13. Crucial role of Black Sea warming in amplifying the 2012 Krymsk precipitation extreme in NATURE GEOSCIENCE
  • 2016-02-18. A Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution in CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS
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